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（字幕翻译：Diana Blanchett）

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在接下来的20年里 我们将见证人类历史上
In the next 20 years, we're about to see what may turn out

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我们的生活
to be the biggest changes

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出现的最大的变革
to the way, we live in human history.

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我是詹姆斯·伯克 我将带你
I'm James Burke, and I'm gonna take you

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开始时间之旅 一起观看
on a journey through time, joining up the dots

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大约10个联结 描绘那些
in about 10 connections, charting the people,

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最出人意料的 改变历史的人物
objects, and ideas that change history

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物件和思想
in the most surprising ways.

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为你讲述不可思议的故事 关于我们如何走到今天
To tell you the incredible story of how we got here.

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以及接下来将走向何方
Where we're going next?

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这个系列节目是关于变革的过程
This series is about the process of change

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以及为什么 我们所做的一切 正在塑造未来
and why the future is being shaped by everything we do

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而未来不会是我们想象的那样
and is not going to be what we expect.

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因为这就是变革发生的方式
Because that's the way change happens.

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因果关系
Cause and effect.

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你用创新来解决问题 即使你成功了
You innovate to solve a problem and even if you succeed,

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也总会出现一个意想不到的结果 它会触发
there's always an unexpected outcome that triggers the need

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对另一个创新的需求 依此类推
for another innovation, and so on.

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这就是为什么 过去没有人知道接下来会发生什么
That's why nobody in the past knew what was coming next,

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你也不知道
nor will you.

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一系列的联结
The sequence of connections leads

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会像倒下的多米诺骨牌一样
like a falling set of dominoes to an innovation

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导向一个将要改变人类的创新
that's set to transform humankind.

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那么 我们接下来要去哪里
So, where do we want to go from here?

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下一个联结是什么
What's the next connection?

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（联结 詹姆斯·伯克）

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（这一切都不是真的）

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好的 这将是我们未来的方向
So, this is the future we're heading for.

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人工智能驱动的化身
Artificial-intelligence-powered avatars

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将如此逼真 以至于无法区分它们与我们
so realistic, they'll be indistinguishable from us.

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不再有搜索引擎 一页页的链接 或在线表单
No more search engines, pages of links, or online forms.

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人类相貌的人工智能将成为通往世界上
Human-looking AI will be the new gatekeeper

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所有知识的新看门人
to all the knowledge of the world.

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它将看起来像我们 声音像我们 行为也像我们
It'll look like us, sound like us, and act like us,

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利用深度学习来调整并与我们一起进化
using deep learning to adapt and evolve with us.

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这对人类来说意味着什么
What will that mean for humanity?

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在跟随联结的踪迹 走向一个人工智能
Give it some thought while we follow the trail of connections

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变得像人类的未来时 请思考一下这个问题
that leads to a future where AI becomes, well, human

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这个未来始于200多年前的
and it starts over 200 years ago

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一个非常无聊的东西 这个
with something really boring, this.

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如果你是一个木船时代的造船工人
If you are a shipbuilder back in the days of wooden ships,

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这可能是你的船的一部分
this could be a bit of your vessel

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而在你的船遇上蛀船蛤
and this is what your ships are could look like

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并被它们啃得千疮百孔后 你的船可能是这样的
after your ship has bumped into a shipworm and been bored.

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我们的木船将这些小虫子
We carry the little worms in our wooden ships

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带到了全世界
all over the planet.

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它们每年繁殖四次
They reproduce four times a year and each time,

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根据每次侵扰的船只类型的不同
depending on what type has infested the ship,

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可能会有多达500万只幼虫
there could be up to 5 million baby worms

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而它们的一辈子只是吃木头 然后死去
and all they do is eat wood and die.

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但等着瞧吧 当一个聪明的年轻人
But wait until you see how the shipworm changes history

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观察一只蛀船蛤时 它将如何改变历史
when this bright young man takes a look at one.

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在1802年 一个名叫马克·布鲁内尔的法国人
See, in 1802, a Frenchman called Marc Brunel,

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他在纽约担任了几年的首席工程师后
who's been the New York Chief Engineer for a few years,

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来到了朴茨茅斯 带着一个新的造船想法
fetches up in Portsmouth with a new ship-building idea

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为海军节省大量劳动力成本
for saving the Navy a fortune in labor costs.

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当时装卸船只使用的是
See loading and unloading ships back then uses

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滑轮组和绳索
what's called block-and-tackle

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来提升和移动重物 如枪支或补给品
to lift and move heavy weights like guns or supplies

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绳索 还有
that tackles the rope

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不同的尺寸的木滑轮
and each wooden blocks a different size,

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根据工作需要而定 每艘船可能有数百个
depending on the job, there could be hundreds on each ship.

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仅皇家海军每年就消耗十万个
The Royal Navy alone gets through a hundred thousand a year,

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需要大量训练有素的木匠
using a multitude of trained carpenters,

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逐个削制成型 劳动强度很大
each chipping them down to size, it's laborious,

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而且滑轮损坏后需要更换
and then the blocks get damaged need replacing,

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成本也很高
so it's also expensive.

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于是 布鲁内尔自动化了滑轮制造过程
So, Brunel automates the block-making process

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利用了一个叫做劳动分工的理论
and saves a ton of money using a theory called

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节省了大量资金
the Division of Labor.

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10个未经训练的人操作一系列机器
10 unskilled men on a series of machines,

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每台机器完成生产的一个部分
each machine doing one bit of the production

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这个系统被称为砌块厂
in a system called a block mill,

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完成了过去需要
all doing the work that used

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上百名工匠才能完成的工作
to take over a hundred craftsmen.

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这可能是工业世界的第一条装配线
It's probably the industrial world's first assembly line.

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布鲁内尔的砌块厂的消息 通过海上的传闻
News of Brunel's block mill reaches far and wide

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传遍各地
on the Maritime Grapevine.

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甚至纳尔逊上将 也在前往特拉法加战役的途中
Even Admiral Nelson turns up to take a look on his way

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特意来看看
to the Battle of Trafalgar.

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到现在 布鲁内尔已经名声在外
So, by now Brunel has made a name for himself.

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于是 伦敦当局向他提出了一个挑战
So, the London authorities threw him a challenge.

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泰晤士河
The River Thames.

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看到这段水域了吗
See this stretch of water?

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在1823年 唯一的过河方法是坐渡船
In 1823, the only way across was by Ferry.

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于是 想法是在泰晤士河下挖一条隧道
So, the idea is to dig a tunnel under the Thames,

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维多利亚时代的工业力量 驯服世界
the might of Victorian industry taming the world.

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那么 布鲁内尔想到了什么解决方案呢
So, what does Brunel think of as a solution?

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这里是微小的联结 通向巨大成就的地方
Here's where tiny connections link to colossal achievements

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因为如果你想挖一条不会在你头上坍塌的隧道
because if you want to dig a tunnel that won't collapse

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你得模仿蛀船蛤
on your head, you copy the shipworm.

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看 蛀船蛤头部周围有几片弯曲的壳
See around the worm's head there's a couple of curved bits

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像切割器一样 将一块块的木头
of shell acting like cutters and delivering bits of wood

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送到嘴里 同时还能
to the mouth and at the same time,

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保护虫子的头部
protecting the worm's head,

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布鲁内尔放大了这个原理
Brunel upscales the principle

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设计了一种全新的挖掘系统
designing a brand-new excavator system.

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36个木制单元 每个单元内有一个工人
36 wooden cells, each were the workman inside,

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像蛀船蛤一样向外挖掘
each acting like the shipworm digging away

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并受到盾牌保护
and protected by a shield.

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整个装置沿着轨道挖掘前进
The whole setup pushed forward on rails

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每次仅推进几英寸
just inches at a time as a digging advances.

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这就是他们完成时的样子
Here's what the job looks like when they finished.

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在伦敦 在泰晤士河下 介于沃平
In London, under the Thames between Wapping

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和罗瑟希德之间
and Rotherhithe,

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一条超过1500英尺长的行人隧道
a pedestrian tunnel more than 1,500 feet long,

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在最初四个月内 超过一百万人走过
in its first four months, more than a million people

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他们终于成功了
walk through just to say they've done it.

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1865年 这条隧道成为
In 1865, the tunnel becomes part

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伦敦地铁系统的一部分 成为世界各地
of the London subway system, an inspiration

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隧道建造者的灵感来源
for tunnel builders all over the world

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至今依然坚固
and it's still going strong today,

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这要感谢小蛀船蛤和布鲁内尔
thanks to the little shipworm and Brunel.

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但在施工期间发生的一件事
But it's an event that happens during construction

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触发了我们一系列
that triggers the next in our series

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令人惊讶的联结中的下一个 最终将我们引向
of surprising connections that will eventually lead us

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人工智能驱动的化身
to AI-powered avatar.

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布鲁内尔对他的发明非常自信
See, Brunel is so confident about his invention,

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他让他的儿子伊桑巴德 在挖隧道的时候
he let his son Isambard sit up front

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在前方工作
during tunneling.

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身为一名崭露头角的工程师
A budding engineer himself,

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这个男孩承担了大部分隧道工作
the boy takes on most of the tunneling job,

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从父亲那里学习基本技巧
learning the ropes from his father.

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工人们开始报告隧道顶部
The crew begin to report bits of China falling

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掉落瓷片
from the roof of the tunnel.

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这意味着一件事
It means only one thing.

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河床非常接近 上面散布着
The riverbed, littered with thousands of years

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几千年的人类的垃圾
of human debris is very close.

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然后在1828年 灾难降临
Then in 1828, disaster strikes.

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河水冲破
The river breaks through

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洪水造成了巨大破坏 使挖掘工作
and the flooding does so much damage, it shuts down the dig

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停顿了七年
for seven years.

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这场洪水
It also happens

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还差点淹死小布鲁内尔 把他送进了医院
to half-drown Brunel Junior and put him in hospital.

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严重受伤的伊桑巴德有了很多休养时间
Seriously injured, Isambard gets a lot of convalescent time

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思考除了挖隧道之外的其他工作
to think about doing other jobs besides digging tunnels.

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于是在无事可做时 他设计了一些
So, with nothing else to do, he designed something

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当时认为不可能的东西
up to now thought impossible.

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英国布里斯托的惊人的克利夫顿吊桥
The amazing Clifton Suspension Bridge in Bristol, England,

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一座奇迹建筑 伊桑巴德称之为“我的初恋”
an architectural marvel, Isambard called it "My First Love".

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你能看出是为什么
And you can see why.

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桥横跨250英尺高的峡谷
Spanning a 250-foot high gorge,

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桥基锚定在基岩上
the Bridge is anchored to the bedrock,

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使用深入地下65英尺的巨大铁链
using colossal iron chains stretching 65 feet underground.

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布鲁内尔花了3年时间 寻找能够
Brunel spends three years sourcing iron of iron

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承受重量的优质铁
of quality to take the weight.

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没人见过这样的东西
Nobody's ever seen anything like it.

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1864年盛大开幕时 15万人挤满街道
150,000 people packed the streets for to grand opening in 1864,

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至今它依然坚固
and it's still going strong today.

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全都归功于伊桑巴德革命性地使用铁
All thanks to Isambard's revolutionary use of iron.

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接下来 伊桑巴德想 铁还能做什么
Next, thinks Isambard, "What else can iron do?

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如何用1000英里的坚固的
How about 1000 miles of strong,

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超高效的铁路轨道连接全国的
super-efficient railway track to connect-up towns

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城镇和城市
and cities across the country?"

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于是他创建了大西部铁路公司
So, he builds the Great Western Railway,

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使新一代的更快 更平稳的火车成为可能
which makes it possible to run a new generation of faster,

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速度几乎是
smoother locomotives traveling along at almost double

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竞争对手的两倍
the speed of their competitors.

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伊桑巴德和其他人争相铺设轨道
Isambard and others like him, race to lay track

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价格战随之而来 如今火车旅行民主化了
and a price war follows; train travel is now democratized

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因为现在任何人都买得起票
because now anybody can afford a ticket.

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想法传播开来 货物也是如此 牛奶 奶酪
Ideas spread, so do goods, milk, cheese,

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肉类从田间到餐桌 全靠铁轨
meats coming from field to table, all on iron tracks.

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00:09:46,947 --> 00:09:48,519
（I.K.布鲁内尔 建造 1859）
但他还没有停下
But he's not done yet.

166
00:09:49,167 --> 00:09:51,987
一直以来 伊桑巴德都在跨越边界思考
All the while, Isambard is thinking beyond borders

167
00:09:51,987 --> 00:09:53,667
因为他也在思考
because he's also been thinking

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用铁革新航运
about revolutionizing shipping using iron

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使蒸汽船更大 更快 更强
to make steamships bigger, faster, and stronger.

170
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这首先解决了蛀船蛤的问题
So, that's the end of the shipworm problem for a start.

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3艘巨型蒸汽船之后 他改变了
Three giant steamships later, he's changed

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各处全球海洋贸易的业务
the business of oceanic trade everywhere

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并开创了远洋铁船
and pioneered ocean-going iron holes.

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伊桑巴德的3艘船由煤驱动
Isambard's three ships are powered by coal,

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供给巨大的蒸汽引擎
feeding huge steam engines

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引擎转动巨大的螺旋桨 或巨大的桨轮
that turn either massive screw propellers or huge paddles.

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如果风力足够 比如大西洋上
And if there's enough wind, as is often the case

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常有的情况 他们可以关闭引擎
in the Atlantic, they can switch the engines off,

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升起巨大的帆 免费航行
hoist huge sails and travel well for free.

180
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1838年 他的第一艘船“大西部号”
In 1838, his first ship, the Great Western,

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抵达纽约 燃料还有剩余
arrives in New York with fuel to spare.

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伊桑巴德正在连接世界
Isambard is connecting the world.

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好了 现在问一句 我们到哪里了
Okay, time for a "Where are we?"

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这一切如何引领我们走向
How is all this leading us to the future

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人工智能驱动的化身如此逼真
where AI-powered avatars will be so realistic,

186
00:11:00,957 --> 00:11:03,516
以至于无法与我们区分的未来
they'll be indistinguishable from us.

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00:11:04,275 --> 00:11:07,527
可怕的蛀船蛤启发了老布鲁内尔的
The dreaded shipworm which inspires Brunel Senior's

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隧道挖掘机 隧道坍塌
tunnel-boring machine, a tunnel collapse,

189
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几乎杀死他的儿子伊桑巴德
almost kills his son Isambard

190
00:11:12,253 --> 00:11:13,938
并让他住院
and puts him in hospital

191
00:11:14,111 --> 00:11:16,587
在医院里 他设计了一座巨大的桥
where he designs a huge bridge,

192
00:11:16,587 --> 00:11:19,407
然后建造了一个铁路网络和3艘蒸汽船
then builds a railway network and three steamships,

193
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用铁连接世界
connecting up the world with iron.

194
00:11:27,338 --> 00:11:30,593
与此同时 维多利亚时代的工程师们在试验
And all the while Victorian engineers are experimenting

195
00:11:30,593 --> 00:11:33,053
新的大规模生产铁的方法
with new ways to mass-produce iron.

196
00:11:33,053 --> 00:11:36,540
改进古老的铸铁过程
Refining the age-old process of casting iron.

197
00:11:37,314 --> 00:11:40,044
铁和木炭的混合物被倒入模具中
An iron and charcoal mix is poured into a cast

198
00:11:40,069 --> 00:11:43,642
像果冻模具一样 可以塑造成任何形状
like a jelly mold, taking any shape you like,

199
00:11:43,819 --> 00:11:46,459
但不是每个城镇都有金属铸造厂
but not every town has a metal foundry,

200
00:11:46,459 --> 00:11:48,019
所以熔化的金属被倒入
so the molten metal is poured

201
00:11:48,019 --> 00:11:52,290
砖形模具 称为生铁 然后冷却
into a brick-shaped mold called a pig, and cooled.

202
00:11:52,729 --> 00:11:54,199
这些便携的铁块
These portable bricks,

203
00:11:54,199 --> 00:11:57,229
可以从一个工厂运到另一个工厂
pig iron can now go from factory to factory

204
00:11:57,229 --> 00:12:00,025
重新熔化成任何想要的形状
to get melted back down into any shape you want.

205
00:12:00,197 --> 00:12:01,900
这项技术传播开来
The technology spreads

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00:12:02,877 --> 00:12:04,700
他们用它制造一切
so they're using it for everything.

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00:12:04,699 --> 00:12:10,181
铸铁壁炉 铸铁楼梯 铸铁大门
Cast iron fireplaces, cast iron staircases, cast iron gates,

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00:12:10,279 --> 00:12:14,719
门把手 鞋刮 浴缸 管道 暖气片
door handles, shoe scrapers, bathtubs, pipes, radiators,

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这些产品现在可以大规模生产
products that can now be mass-produced

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任何有点钱的人都能拥有
and owned by anybody with a bit of cash.

211
00:12:19,759 --> 00:12:23,228
铁似乎用途无穷
Iron, it seems, has no limit to its use.

212
00:12:23,345 --> 00:12:27,949
介绍伊桑巴德的竞争对手兼好友 罗伯特·史蒂芬生
Enter Isambard's competitor and good old Robert Stephenson,

213
00:12:27,949 --> 00:12:30,859
另一位铁路先驱 他还无意中
another railway pioneer who incidentally,

214
00:12:30,859 --> 00:12:34,447
发明了一种新的蒸汽火车“火箭号”
invents a new kind of steam, train the rocket.

215
00:12:37,579 --> 00:12:39,829
像布鲁内尔一样 他也是桥梁建造者
Like Brunel, he's also a bridge builder

216
00:12:39,829 --> 00:12:40,969
也架造其他东西
and bridges other things

217
00:12:40,969 --> 00:12:43,879
确保新的火车网络能到达
that make sure the new train network can reach every part

218
00:12:43,879 --> 00:12:44,955
全国每个角落
of the country.

219
00:12:45,525 --> 00:12:48,529
史蒂芬生设计了一座横跨一条英格兰河流的桥梁
Stephenson designs a bridge over a river in England,

220
00:12:48,529 --> 00:12:52,159
使用新的铸铁梁 这是当时世界上最长的
using new cast iron girders and it's one of the longest

221
00:12:52,159 --> 00:12:54,079
同类桥梁之一
of its kind in the world.

222
00:12:54,079 --> 00:12:58,039
听起来不错 但事实证明 与普通铁不同
Sound good, but it turns out that unlike normal iron,

223
00:12:58,039 --> 00:13:01,939
铸铁含碳量高 如果弯曲过多
cast iron has a high carbon content and weakens

224
00:13:01,939 --> 00:13:03,736
就会变弱
if it has to bend too much,

225
00:13:04,639 --> 00:13:06,559
而什么会使铸铁弯曲呢
and what will bend cast iron,

226
00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:08,719
重型火车就能做到
well, heavy locomotives would do the trick,

227
00:13:08,719 --> 00:13:10,699
特别是当它们每周多次
especially, when they cross the bridge back

228
00:13:10,699 --> 00:13:13,025
来回穿越桥梁时
and forth several times a week.

229
00:13:13,879 --> 00:13:15,283
所以 你猜发生了什么
So, guess what happens?

230
00:13:16,228 --> 00:13:18,789
1847年5月24日
On the 24th of May 1847,

231
00:13:18,814 --> 00:13:22,228
当一列火车正在过桥时 当它开始
while a train is on its way across the bridge, as it start

232
00:13:22,228 --> 00:13:26,439
跨越第三个铸件时 一根梁突然断裂
to cross the third spam, one of the girders suddenly fails

233
00:13:26,698 --> 00:13:31,556
大部分火车掉进了30英尺下的河中
and most of the train falls 30 feet down into the river.

234
00:13:32,009 --> 00:13:35,156
5人死亡 9人重伤
Five deaths, nine serious injuries,

235
00:13:35,181 --> 00:13:37,658
（火车事故 河上灾难）
报纸头条令人震惊
and lured newspaper headline.

236
00:13:38,947 --> 00:13:39,800
（迪桥悲剧）

237
00:13:40,501 --> 00:13:41,319
（火车灾难多人死亡）

238
00:13:42,306 --> 00:13:43,007
（人员死亡）

239
00:13:47,381 --> 00:13:50,268
史蒂芬生似乎麻烦大了
Stephenson looks to be in big trouble.

240
00:13:51,028 --> 00:13:54,573
1849年 成立了一个皇家委员会进行调查
In 1849, a Royal Commission is set up to investigate.

241
00:13:55,558 --> 00:13:58,618
在他们的报告中 尽管他们免除了史蒂芬生的责任
In their report, although they exonerate Stephenson,

242
00:13:58,618 --> 00:14:01,408
但他们谴责了桥梁的设计 并禁止在铁路桥梁中
they condemn the design of the bridge and ban the use

243
00:14:01,408 --> 00:14:03,979
使用铸铁桁架
of cast iron trusses in railway bridges.

244
00:14:05,818 --> 00:14:07,888
皇家委员会由分析型思想家组成
The Royal Commission is made up of analytical thinkers,

245
00:14:07,888 --> 00:14:11,736
包括一位顾问 剑桥大学新任数学教授
including an advisor, the new Professor of Math at Cambridge,

246
00:14:11,761 --> 00:14:15,213
乔治·斯托克斯 他认识所有重要人物
George Stokes, who knows everybody who's anybody,

247
00:14:15,238 --> 00:14:16,858
是科学的各个领域的
and who is a mover and shaker

248
00:14:16,858 --> 00:14:18,792
重要推动者
in anything to do with science.

249
00:14:19,168 --> 00:14:21,958
现在 完全基于人脉的巨大联系
Now, this is where huge connection to purely

250
00:14:21,958 --> 00:14:26,188
起作用了 因为斯托克斯是
on who you know because Stokes, his secretary,

251
00:14:26,188 --> 00:14:28,565
科学皇家学会的秘书
to the scientific royal society,

252
00:14:28,858 --> 00:14:33,118
在1859年 一位新成员加入 是一位名叫
and in 1859, he welcomes a new member, a toxicologist

253
00:14:33,118 --> 00:14:37,690
威廉·伯德·赫拉帕斯的毒理学家 也是一位科学界的朋友
who's also a pal called William Bird Herapath.

254
00:14:38,370 --> 00:14:41,278
我提到他 是因为这真的是一个
I bother you with him because this is truly one

255
00:14:41,278 --> 00:14:43,378
完全出乎意料的创新
of those totally unexpected innovations

256
00:14:43,378 --> 00:14:45,503
你绝不会相信
that you do never believe.

257
00:14:46,948 --> 00:14:47,781
因为
Because the key

258
00:14:47,781 --> 00:14:50,581
赫拉帕斯惊人的 改变世界的发现的关键是
to Herapath's amazing world-changing discovery

259
00:14:51,206 --> 00:14:52,534
狗尿
is dog pee.

260
00:14:53,245 --> 00:14:56,698
一种新物质 称为赫拉帕斯石（碘喹硫酸盐）
And a new substance, known as Herapathite,

261
00:14:56,698 --> 00:14:59,518
无论你知不知道它 你在特别明亮的日子
which whether you know it or not, you care about

262
00:14:59,518 --> 00:15:01,940
都会想到它
on any particularly bright day.

263
00:15:02,578 --> 00:15:04,753
先从狗尿开始
Let's start with the dog urine.

264
00:15:05,908 --> 00:15:09,898
1852年 赫拉帕斯的一名学生注意到
In 1852, one of Herapath's students notices as you would,

265
00:15:09,898 --> 00:15:13,408
如果你将碘加入狗尿中
that if you add iodine to dog urine,

266
00:15:13,408 --> 00:15:16,138
假设这只狗已经被喂食了奎宁 听到你想说的了
if the dog has already been fed quinine, okay, okay,

267
00:15:16,138 --> 00:15:17,972
但极客就是做这些事情的
but this is what geeks do.

268
00:15:18,238 --> 00:15:21,042
就会形成针状晶体
Then you get needle-like crystals.

269
00:15:21,550 --> 00:15:23,968
这就是我提到的赫拉帕斯石
This is the Herapathite I mentioned,

270
00:15:23,968 --> 00:15:26,098
当然 赫拉帕斯之后在显微镜下
which, of course, then gets examined by Herapath

271
00:15:26,098 --> 00:15:27,808
观察这些晶体
under his microscope,

272
00:15:27,808 --> 00:15:30,448
在显微镜下 发现它们
whereupon the crystals reveal themselves

273
00:15:30,448 --> 00:15:33,596
能够偏振光
to be capable of polarizing light.

274
00:15:34,648 --> 00:15:37,698
首先 解释一下偏振的意思
First of all, here's what polarized means.

275
00:15:37,978 --> 00:15:41,488
光线向各个方向发散 对吗
Okay, light radiates in all directions, right?

276
00:15:41,488 --> 00:15:45,058
垂直 水平 以及介于两者之间的任何方向
Vertical, horizontal, and everywhere in between.

277
00:15:45,058 --> 00:15:47,818
例如你现在看到的光
The light you are looking at here now, for example,

278
00:15:47,818 --> 00:15:50,728
还包括从水面反射产生的光波
also includes the light waves produced by reflections off

279
00:15:50,728 --> 00:15:53,188
称为眩光
the water surface that called glare.

280
00:15:53,188 --> 00:15:57,358
在这种杂乱的状态下 它被称为未偏振光
In this every which way state it's called unpolarized.

281
00:15:57,358 --> 00:15:58,768
如果你能偏振光
If you could polarize the light,

282
00:15:58,768 --> 00:16:02,218
原则上你可以阻挡 除垂直光波外的
you could in principle, block all the light waves except

283
00:16:02,218 --> 00:16:04,018
所有光波
maybe the vertical one,

284
00:16:04,018 --> 00:16:06,208
这样就能消除
and that way you cut out this glare

285
00:16:06,208 --> 00:16:08,135
其他光波的眩光
from all the other light waves.

286
00:16:08,998 --> 00:16:11,409
回到赫拉帕斯和他的晶体
Okay, back to Herapath and his crystals.

287
00:16:12,948 --> 00:16:16,678
如果你将一块赫拉帕斯晶体叠在另一块上
If you lie one Herapath crystal on top of another,

288
00:16:16,678 --> 00:16:19,858
当你转动其中一块时 晶体会让
when you turn one of them, the crystals let through less

289
00:16:19,858 --> 00:16:23,098
越来越少的光通过 直到彼此成直角时
and less light until at right angles to each other,

290
00:16:23,098 --> 00:16:25,471
完全不透光
they let through no light at all.

291
00:16:26,008 --> 00:16:28,738
赫拉帕斯找到了一种制作
Herapath works out a way to make large sheets

292
00:16:28,738 --> 00:16:31,468
大片的这种材料的方法 然后像他做所有事情一样
of the material and then write it up as he does

293
00:16:31,468 --> 00:16:34,378
写下来 但写得很糟糕
all his stuff so badly,

294
00:16:34,378 --> 00:16:37,620
从未发表 很快就被遗忘了
it's never published, and it's soon forgotten.

295
00:16:38,870 --> 00:16:41,098
但赫拉帕斯石是科学史上另一个
But Herapathite is another one of those wonderful moments

296
00:16:41,098 --> 00:16:44,638
美妙的时刻 一个重大创新
in the history of science, when a major innovation languages

297
00:16:44,638 --> 00:16:47,968
在默默无闻中沉寂 直到有一天
in obscurity until one day it bursts

298
00:16:47,968 --> 00:16:51,118
它突然出现在震惊的世界面前 改变了未来
upon an astonished world and changes the future,

299
00:16:51,118 --> 00:16:52,678
事情就是会这么发生
which is what happens.

300
00:16:52,678 --> 00:16:55,798
这涉及到一位苏格兰科学家大卫·布儒斯特
It involves a Scottish scientist called David Brewster,

301
00:16:55,798 --> 00:16:58,768
他因发明万花筒而闻名
best known for his invention of the kaleidoscope.

302
00:17:00,058 --> 00:17:02,128
1858年 布儒斯特写了一本书
In 1858, Brewster writes a book

303
00:17:02,128 --> 00:17:05,008
提到六年前赫拉帕斯的被遗忘的
in which he mentions Herapath's forgotten dog urine,

304
00:17:05,008 --> 00:17:07,228
狗尿实验
an experiment from six years earlier,

305
00:17:07,228 --> 00:17:09,478
但布儒斯特的这本书也没人读
which he is once again forgotten about for 70 years

306
00:17:09,478 --> 00:17:11,729
又被遗忘了70年
because nobody reads Brewster's book.

307
00:17:13,348 --> 00:17:15,268
然后在1926年
And then, in 1926,

308
00:17:15,268 --> 00:17:19,175
一位年轻有才华的物理学学生 埃德温·兰德
a young and talented physics student called Edwin Land

309
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,748
在纽约公共图书馆阅读的时候
comes across Herapath in his own reading

310
00:17:21,748 --> 00:17:23,870
偶然发现了赫拉帕斯
at the New York Public Library.

311
00:17:25,138 --> 00:17:28,048
他制作了赫拉帕斯石混合物的样本
He makes samples of the Herapathite concoction,

312
00:17:28,073 --> 00:17:31,551
看到了它的潜力 急忙申请了专利
sees what it can do, and hurriedly files a pattern.

313
00:17:32,368 --> 00:17:34,648
他兴奋地回到哈佛
He's so excited he goes back to Harvard,

314
00:17:34,648 --> 00:17:37,168
希望那里的实验室能帮助他了解更多
hoping the labs there will help him discover more

315
00:17:37,168 --> 00:17:39,958
关于赫拉帕斯针状晶体能做什么
about what Herapath's needle crystals can do.

316
00:17:39,958 --> 00:17:42,079
他如愿以偿地得到了一个实验室
He duly gets a lab to play in.

317
00:17:46,895 --> 00:17:51,111
兰德最初的目标是 制造防眩光的汽车大灯
Land's first aim is to create glare-proof car headlights.

318
00:17:51,409 --> 00:17:53,719
可惜汽车制造商不感兴趣
Alas, no interest in car makers.

319
00:17:53,719 --> 00:17:57,010
于是他想 为什么不试试制造太阳镜呢
So, he thinks why not try making sunglasses?

320
00:17:58,939 --> 00:18:03,109
他做到了 并将其称为宝丽来太阳镜出售
So, he does, and sells them as Polaroid sunglasses,

321
00:18:03,109 --> 00:18:05,329
戴上它们 你只会接收到
wear them and all you're getting is one set

322
00:18:05,329 --> 00:18:07,279
一组光波 没有眩光
of light waves, no glare.

323
00:18:07,279 --> 00:18:08,253
太棒了
Great.

324
00:18:09,469 --> 00:18:12,169
兰德的创新恰逢其时
Land's innovation is just in time.

325
00:18:12,169 --> 00:18:14,245
二战到来
World War II arrives,

326
00:18:15,143 --> 00:18:18,029
军队大规模采用偏振技术
and the military go for polarization in a big way.

327
00:18:19,849 --> 00:18:23,365
先看到敌人的飞行员就能先开火
A pilot who sees the enemy first is a first to shoot.

328
00:18:27,919 --> 00:18:30,619
看看通过军用眼睛看到的东西
Just take a look at what you see through military eyes act,

329
00:18:30,619 --> 00:18:34,547
比如眩光如何让目标难以辨认
for instance, the way glare makes a target difficult to see,

330
00:18:34,572 --> 00:18:35,929
而通过偏振视角看敌人时
and how much clearer things are

331
00:18:35,929 --> 00:18:38,240
清晰度有多高
through a polarized view of the enemy.

332
00:18:39,889 --> 00:18:42,709
这是一个可能最终会帮助
It's an edge that can eventually play its part

333
00:18:42,709 --> 00:18:44,149
赢得战争的优势
in winning a war.

334
00:18:49,099 --> 00:18:51,169
那么 这一切如何引领我们
So, how is all this leading us to a future

335
00:18:51,169 --> 00:18:54,229
走向人工智能驱动的化身如此逼真
with AI-powered avatars so realistic,

336
00:18:54,229 --> 00:18:56,548
以至于无法与我们区分的未来呢
they'll be indistinguishable from us.

337
00:18:57,169 --> 00:18:58,729
可怕的蛀船蛤
The dreaded shipworm,

338
00:18:58,729 --> 00:19:01,369
老布鲁内尔的隧道挖掘机
Brunel Senior's tunnel boring machine,

339
00:19:01,369 --> 00:19:04,519
他的儿子伊桑巴德开发了英国铁路
his son Isambard launches Britain's railways,

340
00:19:04,519 --> 00:19:06,649
革新了铁的使用
revolutionizing the use of iron,

341
00:19:06,649 --> 00:19:09,109
史蒂芬生拥抱了这项技术
a technology embraced by Stephenson

342
00:19:09,109 --> 00:19:12,548
他的铸铁桥灾难由斯托克斯调查
whose cast iron bridge disaster is examined by Stokes,

343
00:19:12,979 --> 00:19:15,649
斯托克斯与像威廉·赫拉帕斯这样重要的推动者交往
who mixes with movers and shakers like William Herapath,

344
00:19:15,649 --> 00:19:19,345
他研究狗尿 从中发现了偏振技术
the dog urine man, who discovers polarization

345
00:19:19,370 --> 00:19:23,719
埃德温·兰德利用它发明了太阳镜 为战时的战斗机飞行员
used by Edwin Land to invent sunglasses which give fighter pilots

346
00:19:23,719 --> 00:19:25,532
提供了优势
an advantage during the war.

347
00:19:26,269 --> 00:19:28,009
但兰德还没停下
But Land isn't finished yet.

348
00:19:28,219 --> 00:19:30,529
他即将迎来另一个改变世界的创新
He's on the verge of another world-changing innovation

349
00:19:30,529 --> 00:19:33,196
而且它是偶然发生的
and it comes about by chance.

350
00:19:40,639 --> 00:19:45,589
1943年 兰德在圣菲度假
See, in 1943, Land is on vacation in Santa Fe

351
00:19:45,589 --> 00:19:48,041
为家庭相册拍照
and taking snaps for the family album.

352
00:19:48,658 --> 00:19:49,648
他的小女儿问
His little daughter asks

353
00:19:49,648 --> 00:19:53,098
为什么不能立刻看到拍好的照片
why she can't see a photo immediately after it's been taken.

354
00:19:53,098 --> 00:19:55,828
在那天结束前 这位聪明的爸爸
And before they finish the day, a clever dad has worked out

355
00:19:55,828 --> 00:19:57,268
想出了办法
how to do that.

356
00:19:57,268 --> 00:19:58,963
他想出了这样的办法
Here's what he comes up with...

357
00:20:01,356 --> 00:20:03,826
宝丽来即时相机
A Polaroid-instant camera.

358
00:20:08,354 --> 00:20:09,447
简而言之
In a nutshell,

359
00:20:09,472 --> 00:20:12,111
拍摄的图像通过镜头进来
the image of photographing comes in through the lens,

360
00:20:12,143 --> 00:20:15,260
被镜子反射到负片上
and is reflected by a mirror down onto a negative,

361
00:20:15,285 --> 00:20:18,303
滚动经过处理过程和显影的化学物质
and it's rolled between the processing and developing chemicals.

362
00:20:18,328 --> 00:20:20,615
一分钟后就成了一张照片
And after a minute, it's a photograph.

363
00:20:20,998 --> 00:20:22,856
这张照片被称为拍立得
The photo is called a Polaroid,

364
00:20:22,881 --> 00:20:25,490
席卷了全世界
and it takes the world by storm.

365
00:20:27,453 --> 00:20:29,913
战后宝丽来相机上市
When the Polaroid camera hits the shops after the war,

366
00:20:29,938 --> 00:20:33,748
卖出了数百万台 连同太阳镜一起
it sells in the millions and between it and the sunglasses,

367
00:20:33,748 --> 00:20:36,365
让兰德成了非常富有的人
makes Land a very rich man.

368
00:20:37,498 --> 00:20:39,778
到这时 兰德成了一个
By this point, Land is a guy to go to

369
00:20:39,778 --> 00:20:41,818
在你处境艰难需要创新帮助时
when you're in difficulties and you need an innovation

370
00:20:41,818 --> 00:20:43,045
可以求助的人
to help you out.

371
00:20:44,201 --> 00:20:44,939
战争
War!

372
00:20:44,938 --> 00:20:46,618
到了1950年代中期
And by the mid-1950s,

373
00:20:46,618 --> 00:20:48,028
冷战达到顶峰
it's the height of the Cold War,

374
00:20:48,028 --> 00:20:50,896
这意味着每个人都处境艰难
which means everybody's in difficulties.

375
00:20:52,787 --> 00:20:55,108
（杜鲁门称俄罗斯发生原子弹爆炸）
那个骇人的蠢驴即将拥有原子弹
The stunning mule shall have the atom bomb

376
00:20:55,108 --> 00:20:58,198
（红军引爆了原子弹）
并首先对美国使用
and has exported it first on America.

377
00:20:58,198 --> 00:21:02,638
因此 我们有了两个超级大国 美国和苏联
So, we have two superpowers, the US and the Soviet Union,

378
00:21:02,638 --> 00:21:05,518
和一个对峙状态 双方都拥有
and a standoff, each has nuclear missiles

379
00:21:05,518 --> 00:21:07,108
可能毁灭世界的核导弹
that could end the world.

380
00:21:07,108 --> 00:21:10,045
每一方都需要知道对方在做什么
Each side needs to know what the other is up to.

381
00:21:10,708 --> 00:21:13,468
要弄清楚 你需要飞越敌方领土
To find that out, you need to fly over the enemy territory

382
00:21:13,468 --> 00:21:14,537
看一看
and take a look,

383
00:21:15,230 --> 00:21:17,373
但如果飞机不能直接看到地面
but there's no point if the plane can't see

384
00:21:17,398 --> 00:21:19,453
那就毫无意义
all the way down to the ground.

385
00:21:22,268 --> 00:21:25,109
兰德被召到白宫 在白宫
Land is summoned to the White House where he explains

386
00:21:25,109 --> 00:21:26,931
他向艾森豪威尔总统解释说
to President Eisenhower

387
00:21:26,956 --> 00:21:30,658
他设计的一款相机可以绑在侦察机上
that a camera he has designed can be strapped to a spy plane

388
00:21:30,683 --> 00:21:34,199
非常精确 以至于能在一英里外看到一个
and would be so accurate it would be able to see a golf ball

389
00:21:34,199 --> 00:21:35,573
高尔夫球
at over a mile.

390
00:21:37,709 --> 00:21:40,409
艾森豪威尔本人是个高尔夫爱好者
Now, Eisenhower is a keen golfer himself.

391
00:21:40,409 --> 00:21:43,109
他立即批准了相机开发
He instantly green-lights the camera development,

392
00:21:43,109 --> 00:21:45,089
这也为搭载相机的飞机
which now gives purpose to the plane

393
00:21:45,089 --> 00:21:46,799
赋予了目标
the camera will go on.

394
00:21:49,128 --> 00:21:52,126
这架飞机的目标真可谓突破极限
The plane's objective really pushes the envelope.

395
00:21:52,126 --> 00:21:53,626
往返俄罗斯
Getting to Russia and back,

396
00:21:53,626 --> 00:21:57,292
需要7000英里的飞行距离
requires an operational flight distance of 7,000 miles.

397
00:21:57,766 --> 00:22:01,216
还要飞到13英里高
It also has to fly over 13 miles up to be out of range

398
00:22:01,216 --> 00:22:04,323
以避开苏联战斗机和地对空导弹的射程
of Soviet fighters and surface-to-air missile house.

399
00:22:04,576 --> 00:22:08,176
任务是从上空 拍摄地面上
And from up there, the mission will be to take pictures

400
00:22:08,176 --> 00:22:12,406
小至2英尺的任何物体
of any object on the ground as small as two feet across

401
00:22:12,406 --> 00:22:17,237
生成多达4000对三维照片
and produce as many as 4,000 pairs of stereoscopic photos.

402
00:22:20,019 --> 00:22:23,176
这架拍出惊人的照片的飞机
The plane taking these amazing pictures becomes known as

403
00:22:23,176 --> 00:22:26,698
被称为U-2 由中央情报局运营
the U-2 and is operated by the CIA.

404
00:22:33,196 --> 00:22:35,596
现在 要从13英里外看到任何东西
Now, to see anything from 13 miles away,

405
00:22:35,596 --> 00:22:39,151
U-2的相机需要最大变焦
the U-2 cameras need to be at maximum zoom.

406
00:22:40,516 --> 00:22:44,596
在7万英尺高空飞行
Complicating that at 70,000 feet just to keep flying,

407
00:22:44,596 --> 00:22:47,206
飞行员必须把速度控制在13英里每小时的范围内
the pilot has a 13-mile-an-hour speed envelope

408
00:22:47,206 --> 00:22:52,018
来保持飞行 太快或太慢都会失速
to keep insight of, faster or slower and he'll store.

409
00:22:52,606 --> 00:22:55,786
所以 几乎没有灵活性
So, there's little, if any, flexibility to comply with

410
00:22:55,786 --> 00:22:57,519
来满足相机的需求
what the camera needs.

411
00:23:00,646 --> 00:23:02,986
1957年 美国人探测到
In 1957, the Americans detect

412
00:23:02,986 --> 00:23:04,816
导弹测试时发出的那种
the kind of radio signals you get

413
00:23:04,816 --> 00:23:06,870
无线电信号
when you're doing missile tests.

414
00:23:07,057 --> 00:23:11,173
来自哈萨克斯坦一个叫秋拉塔姆的地方附近
Coming from near a place called Tyuratam in Kazakhstan,

415
00:23:11,399 --> 00:23:13,401
一架U-2被派去查看
and a U-2 is sent to take a look.

416
00:23:15,946 --> 00:23:19,696
由于任何导弹发射台 都必须通过
Since any missile launchpad will have to be accessible

417
00:23:19,696 --> 00:23:23,416
铁轨运输导弹 U-2飞行员被告知
by missile-delivering railroad, the U-2 pilot is told

418
00:23:23,416 --> 00:23:25,276
沿着邻近乌兹别克斯坦首都
to follow the main railroad through

419
00:23:25,276 --> 00:23:27,976
塔什干的主铁路线飞行
the neighboring Uzbekistan Capital, Tashkent,

420
00:23:27,976 --> 00:23:32,010
直到到达哈萨克斯坦和疑似信号区域
until they reach Kazakhstan and the suspect signals area.

421
00:23:33,976 --> 00:23:37,726
果不其然 1957年8月5日
And sure enough, on August the 5th, 1957,

422
00:23:37,726 --> 00:23:42,471
U-2拍摄到了一个大型新发射场的证据
the U-2-photographed evidence of a big new launch complex.

423
00:23:42,713 --> 00:23:43,713
这个
This,

424
00:23:44,190 --> 00:23:47,056
发射台上有一个巨大的火箭
on the pad down there and too big to be hidden

425
00:23:47,056 --> 00:23:50,356
无法藏起来不被U-2看到
from follow on U-2 visits is a huge rocket known

426
00:23:50,356 --> 00:23:52,105
被称为R-7
as the R-7

427
00:23:53,226 --> 00:23:55,803
水平组装后 被摆好 抬至垂直位置
assembled horizontally and then rolled out to be raised

428
00:23:55,828 --> 00:23:58,726
加好了油 这种改变游戏规则的
to the vertical position and fueled variance

429
00:23:58,726 --> 00:24:01,366
火箭的变种 将在未来50年甚至更长时间内
of this game-changing rocket will be in operation

430
00:24:01,366 --> 00:24:03,843
投入使用
for the next 50 years and more.

431
00:24:05,206 --> 00:24:08,206
R-7有一个周围有
The R-7 has a core stage, surrounded

432
00:24:08,206 --> 00:24:10,216
四个捆绑式助推器的核心级 
by four strap-on boosters.

433
00:24:10,216 --> 00:24:13,241
可以把它们想象成巨大的保温瓶
Think of them as huge thermos flasks.

434
00:24:15,586 --> 00:24:17,257
这就是它的工作原理
And this is how it worked.

435
00:24:18,496 --> 00:24:21,316
设计者明白某些气体可以被点燃
The designers understood that certain gases ignite

436
00:24:21,316 --> 00:24:23,566
保温瓶允许你
and that the thermos flask permits you

437
00:24:23,566 --> 00:24:26,836
以冷冻液态形式
to store vast quantities of those gases safely

438
00:24:26,836 --> 00:24:30,136
安全地大量储存这些气体 直到你想点火时
in the frozen liquid form until you want to ignite them.

439
00:24:30,136 --> 00:24:33,286
这时 取下保温瓶的瓶盖
At which point, you take the top off the flask,

440
00:24:33,286 --> 00:24:37,096
气体蒸发 你一点火 轰隆
the gases evaporate, you apply a light, and boom.

441
00:24:37,096 --> 00:24:40,036
现在 有两种气体比其他任何气体都更擅长这个
Now, two gases do that better than any other.

442
00:24:40,036 --> 00:24:43,156
从我身后这个躺着的版本的保温瓶中
The two gases that are released from this particular version

443
00:24:43,156 --> 00:24:46,906
释放的两种气体
of a thermos flask, the one lying on its side behind me now,

444
00:24:46,906 --> 00:24:49,335
是煤油和氧气
were kerosene and oxygen.

445
00:24:53,048 --> 00:24:55,132
如果你将这两种气体释放到一个
If you release those two gases into a

446
00:24:55,157 --> 00:24:58,381
另一端有出口的密闭空间
confined space with a hole at the other end of it,

447
00:24:58,406 --> 00:25:00,335
在释放的时候混合气体
and mix 'em as you do so,

448
00:25:00,360 --> 00:25:03,655
然后点燃气体 你就能看到
and then set light to them, you get...

449
00:25:04,006 --> 00:25:05,030
那个
That.

450
00:25:09,436 --> 00:25:11,356
一旦四个助推器都点火
Once all four boosters light up,

451
00:25:11,356 --> 00:25:13,429
核心级点火 火箭起飞
the core ignites the liftoff.

452
00:25:14,056 --> 00:25:18,647
这枚火箭可以携带6吨重的弹头飞行5000英里
The rocket can carry a six-ton warhead 5,000 miles.

453
00:25:19,477 --> 00:25:23,217
所以 苏联拥有了洲际弹道导弹
So, the Soviets have an intercontinental ballistic missile,

454
00:25:23,242 --> 00:25:25,786
能够向世界任何地方
capable of delivering a nuclear strike anywhere

455
00:25:25,786 --> 00:25:27,041
投送核打击
in the world.

456
00:25:33,676 --> 00:25:35,956
但在美国人对这一新威胁
But before the Americans can get too worked up

457
00:25:35,956 --> 00:25:37,546
过于担忧之前
by this new threat,

458
00:25:37,546 --> 00:25:41,146
两个月后的1957年10月4日
two months later on October the 4th, 1957,

459
00:25:41,146 --> 00:25:44,146
R-7以一种重大的方式改变了未来
the R-7 changes the future in a big way,

460
00:25:44,146 --> 00:25:48,046
并给了美国军方一个巨大的惊吓
and gives the American Military the fright of their lives

461
00:25:48,046 --> 00:25:49,936
它将世界上第一颗卫星
with the launch into orbit

462
00:25:49,936 --> 00:25:52,103
发射到轨道上
of the world's first satellite,

463
00:25:53,198 --> 00:25:55,400
这颗卫星被称为斯普特尼克
known as Sputnik,

464
00:25:55,996 --> 00:25:59,356
一个篮球大小的金属卫星 除了绕地球飞行
a basketball-size metal satellite that does nothing

465
00:25:59,356 --> 00:26:01,726
并发出22天的哔哔声 直到电池耗尽外
but orbit the earth and beep for 22 days

466
00:26:01,726 --> 00:26:03,643
什么也没做
until its battery runs out.

467
00:26:03,861 --> 00:26:05,181
当关于如何应对的争论
And while the arguments are raging

468
00:26:05,206 --> 00:26:07,846
激烈进行时 在11月
about what to do about this, in November,

469
00:26:07,846 --> 00:26:09,896
俄罗斯人发射了另一颗
the Russians launch another Sputnik

470
00:26:09,921 --> 00:26:12,751
可想而知 名字叫斯普特尼克2号
imaginably named Sputnik 2,

471
00:26:12,776 --> 00:26:14,115
这次带了一名乘客
complete with a passenger,

472
00:26:14,140 --> 00:26:18,796
一只名叫莱卡的狗 成为轨道上的第一个生物
a dog called Laika, the first living creature in orbit.

473
00:26:18,796 --> 00:26:21,466
可惜 这是一张单程票
Sadly, a one-way ticket.

474
00:26:21,466 --> 00:26:24,414
你知道接下来会发生什么了 太空竞赛
Well, you know what comes next, the space race.

475
00:26:31,756 --> 00:26:34,126
美国人试图通过测试他们的
The Americans try and catch up with the test

476
00:26:34,126 --> 00:26:36,390
发射载具“先锋号” 迎头赶上
of their launch vehicle Vanguard.

477
00:26:36,856 --> 00:26:39,367
12月6日 发生了这样的事
On December the 6th, this happened.

478
00:26:45,286 --> 00:26:48,736
在大量电视观众的注视下
Watched by a mass TV audience,

479
00:26:48,736 --> 00:26:51,578
美国公众不喜欢他们看到的东西
the American public does not like what it's seeing.

480
00:26:52,563 --> 00:26:54,376
美国似乎不再是
America it seems, is no longer

481
00:26:54,376 --> 00:26:58,140
它自以为的那个 无懈可击的技术超级大国
the impregnable technological superpower it thought it was.

482
00:27:01,546 --> 00:27:03,856
不到两个月后 1958年
Less than two months later, in 1958,

483
00:27:03,856 --> 00:27:06,706
美国政府对斯普特尼克的震惊做出反应
the US Government reacts to the Sputnik shock

484
00:27:06,706 --> 00:27:08,626
成立了后来被称为
by setting up what becomes known as

485
00:27:08,626 --> 00:27:12,706
高级研究计划局的机构 ARPA
the Advanced Research Projects Agency, ARPA,

486
00:27:12,706 --> 00:27:16,006
鼓励数千名科学家和技术人员
to encourage thousands of scientists and technologists

487
00:27:16,006 --> 00:27:17,926
思考什么样的创新
to think about the kind of innovation

488
00:27:17,926 --> 00:27:20,326
能帮助美国国防领先于
that will help keep American defense ahead

489
00:27:20,326 --> 00:27:22,796
任何可能的威胁
of any conceivable threat.

490
00:27:25,671 --> 00:27:28,546
ARPA的主要目标是利用高科技
ARPA's primary aim is to use high-tech to ramp up

491
00:27:28,546 --> 00:27:32,427
提升士兵的能力 并提供保护他们的新方法
what soldiers can do and provide new ways of protecting them

492
00:27:32,452 --> 00:27:33,826
尤其是 甚至可能用技术
above all, maybe even replace

493
00:27:33,826 --> 00:27:36,006
取代人类士兵
the human soldier with technology.

494
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,796
该机构涉足的数百件事物其中的一些
Some of the hundreds of things the agency gets up to,

495
00:27:39,796 --> 00:27:43,295
包括思想控制的假肢
include a thought-controlled prosthetic arm.

496
00:27:44,896 --> 00:27:46,679
巨型数据处理器
Massive data processor,

497
00:27:48,124 --> 00:27:50,264
虚假信息检测
detection of false information,

498
00:27:50,956 --> 00:27:53,241
无人反潜舰
unmanned anti-submarine vessel,

499
00:27:53,656 --> 00:27:55,912
脑机接口系统
brain-computer interface systems,

500
00:27:56,109 --> 00:27:58,982
单兵平视显示器
heads-up displays for individual soldiers,

501
00:27:59,163 --> 00:28:00,901
联网计算机
networking computers,

502
00:28:01,096 --> 00:28:02,382
计算机鼠标
computer mice,

503
00:28:03,233 --> 00:28:07,131
遥控飞机 后来被称为无人机
remotely-controlled aircraft, later called drones.

504
00:28:07,816 --> 00:28:10,186
这些都是我们今天习以为常的东西，
All things we take for granted today,

505
00:28:10,186 --> 00:28:12,530
但在当时领先了几十年
but which were decades ahead of their time.

506
00:28:14,296 --> 00:28:16,336
好了 又到了“我们到哪了”的时刻
Okay, time for a "Where are we?"

507
00:28:16,336 --> 00:28:18,316
请记住 我们正走向一个
Bear in mind we're heading for a future

508
00:28:18,316 --> 00:28:21,376
人工智能驱动的化身如此逼真
with AI-powered avatars so realistic,

509
00:28:21,401 --> 00:28:23,694
以至于无法与我们区分的未来
they'll be indistinguishable from us.

510
00:28:23,794 --> 00:28:27,499
可怕的蛀船蛤 布鲁内尔的隧道挖掘机
A dreaded shipworm, Brunel's tunneling machine,

511
00:28:27,679 --> 00:28:31,849
布鲁内尔的儿子伊桑巴德革新了工程中的铁的使用
Brunel's son Isambard revolutionizes engineering use in iron,

512
00:28:32,037 --> 00:28:34,066
维多利亚时代工程师用铁制造一切
Victorian engineers use iron for everything,

513
00:28:34,066 --> 00:28:36,288
包括一座坍塌的桥梁
including a bridge that collapses,

514
00:28:36,764 --> 00:28:40,666
由斯托克斯领导调查 斯托克斯是皇家学会的秘书
leading to an inquiry by Stokes, the Royal Society Secretary,

515
00:28:40,666 --> 00:28:42,796
他招募了一个名叫赫拉帕斯的人
who enrolls a man named Herapath

516
00:28:42,796 --> 00:28:46,006
这个人相信狗尿可以改变世界
who believes dog urine can change the world,

517
00:28:46,006 --> 00:28:49,636
事实也的确如此 狗尿成为偏振滤光片的一种成分
which it does as an ingredient in polarizing filters

518
00:28:49,636 --> 00:28:53,176
被兰德用于U-2侦察机
which are used by Land in the U-2 spy plane,

519
00:28:53,176 --> 00:28:56,026
U-2拍摄到俄罗斯的R-7火箭 这些火箭能够
which photographs Russian R-7 rockets that are able

520
00:28:56,026 --> 00:28:58,696
将卫星 例如斯普特尼克 发射到太空
to launch satellites into space like Sputnik.

521
00:28:58,696 --> 00:29:01,866
这促使美国成立了ARPA
This prompts the US to set up ARPA

522
00:29:01,891 --> 00:29:04,960
以生产保持美国领先的创新
to produce innovations that will keep America ahead,

523
00:29:05,802 --> 00:29:08,888
比如 玩耍这样的东西
for example, playing around with things like this.

524
00:29:09,646 --> 00:29:10,808
一只甲虫
A beetle.

525
00:29:12,166 --> 00:29:15,655
看 ARPA实验室里最怪异的想法是
See, the most far-out idea to emerge from the upper labs

526
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:18,560
昆虫机器人
is the idea of insect cyborgs.

527
00:29:19,126 --> 00:29:21,886
这涉及到 在昆虫从幼虫变态开始后的
This involves putting micro-mechanical devices inside

528
00:29:21,886 --> 00:29:25,486
后期阶段 植入微型机械装置
an insect in the late stages of its change from a larva

529
00:29:25,486 --> 00:29:28,306
因为这意味着昆虫组织
because that means the insect tissue will grow round

530
00:29:28,306 --> 00:29:31,636
会围绕装置生长并固定到位 完成它的工作
the device and fix it in place to do its job,

531
00:29:31,636 --> 00:29:34,622
理想情况下是 你告诉昆虫去哪儿它就去哪儿
which ideally is to go where you tell it.

532
00:29:35,294 --> 00:29:37,366
事实证明 甲虫最适合这类工作
It turns out, beetles are best for this kind of work

533
00:29:37,366 --> 00:29:40,583
因为它们强壮且体型大 能承载重物
because they're strong and big and can carry heavy weights.

534
00:29:42,226 --> 00:29:44,806
通过电刺激甲虫大脑 你可以控制
Electric stimulation of the beetle brain gives you control

535
00:29:44,806 --> 00:29:48,016
它的飞行路径 目标是
over the flight path, the aim to fly

536
00:29:48,016 --> 00:29:51,616
在5.5码内飞行 收集数据
within five and a half yards, gather data,

537
00:29:51,616 --> 00:29:53,107
甚至拍照
and even take pictures.

538
00:29:54,166 --> 00:29:55,563
这是早期的
Here's an early example

539
00:29:55,588 --> 00:29:58,583
你如何控制昆虫飞行的例子
of what you can do to control the insect flight.

540
00:30:04,384 --> 00:30:04,920
停
Stop.

541
00:30:07,786 --> 00:30:10,006
这是昆虫研究的最终产品
And here's what the end product of research

542
00:30:10,006 --> 00:30:11,752
可能是什么样子
with insects might be.

543
00:30:13,546 --> 00:30:17,486
微型飞行器在未来的战争中工作
Micro-air vehicles at work in a future war.

544
00:30:19,546 --> 00:30:21,076
它们并不遥远
And they're not far off,

545
00:30:21,076 --> 00:30:24,174
我们只需要解决所有问题
we just need to iron out all the bugs.

546
00:30:26,176 --> 00:30:28,456
但除了像赛博昆虫这样奇怪
But apart from weird and still secret stuff

547
00:30:28,456 --> 00:30:31,426
且至今仍属机密的东西外 ARPA的关键努力
like cyber insects, ARPA's key effort has been

548
00:30:31,426 --> 00:30:33,901
一直是寻找利用技术
to find ways of using technology

549
00:30:33,926 --> 00:30:36,010
将士兵从危险中撤出的方法
to take soldiers out of harm's way.

550
00:30:36,856 --> 00:30:39,076
就像一个可以从战场外
Like a robot replacement that can be controlled

551
00:30:39,076 --> 00:30:41,506
数百甚至数千英里外
from hundreds or even thousands of miles away

552
00:30:41,531 --> 00:30:43,058
控制的替身机器人
from the battlefield.

553
00:30:43,996 --> 00:30:47,116
人类士兵在基地或战场外安全的地方
A human soldier back at base, or somewhere safe off

554
00:30:47,116 --> 00:30:50,746
佩戴虚拟现实显示器
the battlefield wears a virtual reality display

555
00:30:50,746 --> 00:30:53,956
和带有传感器和执行器的套装 与他们的机器双胞胎
and a suit with sensors and activators to unite them

556
00:30:53,956 --> 00:30:55,674
合为一体
with their machine twin.

557
00:30:55,966 --> 00:30:58,455
好吧 这是理论
Well, that's the theory,

558
00:30:58,738 --> 00:31:01,345
这将我们带到了 ARPA研究的
and this brings us to the basic requirement

559
00:31:01,370 --> 00:31:04,188
各个方面的基本需求
that comes into every aspect of ARPA Research,

560
00:31:04,213 --> 00:31:06,603
人机交互
the human-computer interface,

561
00:31:06,886 --> 00:31:09,796
机器智能 人与机器对话
machine intelligence, people talking to machines,

562
00:31:09,821 --> 00:31:12,285
尤其是机器能回话
above all, machines talking back.

563
00:31:13,842 --> 00:31:16,006
所以 关键需求是机器了解
So, the key need is for the machine to know

564
00:31:16,006 --> 00:31:18,796
语言规则 和所有单词的含义
the rules of language and the meaning of all the words,

565
00:31:18,796 --> 00:31:20,206
如何识别它可能遇到的
and how to recognize everything it's

566
00:31:20,231 --> 00:31:23,253
（你是谁）
每件事物 并知道每件事物的名字
likely to come across and know everything's name.

567
00:31:24,286 --> 00:31:26,296
美国国防研究机构希望
The American Defense Research Agency wants

568
00:31:26,296 --> 00:31:29,296
在此开发这种技术 以及机器的回话能力
to develop this here and talk back capability in machines

569
00:31:29,296 --> 00:31:32,744
用于可能取代人类士兵的机器 并与这些机器互动
that might replace human soldiers and interact with them.

570
00:31:36,106 --> 00:31:39,436
完成这项复杂任务的工具惊人地简单
The tools to do this complicated task are stunningly simple.

571
00:31:39,461 --> 00:31:42,464
你甚至可以说它是儿戏
You could even say it's child's play.

572
00:31:43,486 --> 00:31:47,715
1968年在麻省理工学院开发
Developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1968,

573
00:31:47,740 --> 00:31:50,045
名为SHRDLU
and called SHRDLU,

574
00:31:50,070 --> 00:31:52,942
一个取自印刷机上排字布局的
a joke name taken from the layout of typeset

575
00:31:52,967 --> 00:31:54,716
玩笑名字
on a printing machine.

576
00:31:56,266 --> 00:31:57,935
这是一个放置了少量形状的
It's a virtual world of blocks

577
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,004
虚拟积木世界
filled with a small number of shapes,

578
00:32:00,029 --> 00:32:02,012
每个形状都有一个名字
each with a name,

579
00:32:02,372 --> 00:32:06,465
圆锥 方块 球 和金字塔
cone, block ball, and pyramid.

580
00:32:07,006 --> 00:32:10,213
这种非常早期的人工智能版本
This very early version of artificial intelligence

581
00:32:10,213 --> 00:32:12,646
为计算机提供了一个 可以用大约50个词
gives the computer a world that can be dealt with

582
00:32:12,646 --> 00:32:14,116
处理的世界
in about 50 words.

583
00:32:14,116 --> 00:32:19,278
名词如“方块” 动词如“放置在” 或“移动到”
Nouns like block, and verbs like place on or move to,

584
00:32:19,546 --> 00:32:22,848
形容词如“蓝色” 或“大”
and adjectives like blue or big.

585
00:32:24,651 --> 00:32:25,581
要做到这一切
To do all this,

586
00:32:25,606 --> 00:32:27,436
计算机有关于积木世界的规则
the computer has rules about the block world,

587
00:32:27,436 --> 00:32:31,465
所以它理解所有的环境属性
so it understands all the properties of its environment.

588
00:32:32,386 --> 00:32:35,544
在大多数情况下 早期SHRDLU测试
In most cases, the early SHRDLU tests involve

589
00:32:35,569 --> 00:32:38,388
涉及处理如何操作积木的命令
dealing with commands about what to do with the blocks.

590
00:32:38,626 --> 00:32:40,066
很简单
It's pretty simple stuff.

591
00:32:40,066 --> 00:32:44,903
比如“拿起高个子后面的方块 并把它放进盒子里”
Pick up the block behind the tall one and put it in the box.

592
00:32:45,586 --> 00:32:48,770
如果有需要 程序可以问你这是什么意思
And the program can, if necessary, ask you what you mean.

593
00:32:49,456 --> 00:32:51,886
这一切发生在15年多前
Now, this is all happening more than 15 years ago,

594
00:32:51,886 --> 00:32:55,546
所以看起来有点过时 但这种非常原始的语句
so it seems a bit dated, but this very primitive speech

595
00:32:55,546 --> 00:33:00,196
和响应程序 是走向会说话和回答的机器的
and response program was the first step towards talking

596
00:33:00,196 --> 00:33:01,872
第一步
and answering machines.

597
00:33:03,736 --> 00:33:07,567
但那只用了50个词 只是人们使用的词汇的一小部分
But that's just using 50 words, a fraction of those in use.

598
00:33:08,473 --> 00:33:11,686
《牛津英语词典》给出的 当前使用中的单词
The Oxford English Dictionary gives a total of currently

599
00:33:11,686 --> 00:33:16,114
总数为171476个
in-use words of 171,476,

600
00:33:16,536 --> 00:33:18,442
包括所有形式的单词
include all forms of all words

601
00:33:18,466 --> 00:33:20,994
如“跑” “跑着” 和“跑了”
like run, running, and ran

602
00:33:21,019 --> 00:33:23,642
以及像“我的认为”这样的过时的词汇
and obsolete words like, me thinks,

603
00:33:23,667 --> 00:33:25,559
算上这些接近50万个
and you're heading towards half a million.

604
00:33:26,536 --> 00:33:28,726
想象一下如果你能使用所有这些词
Imagine if you could use all those words.

605
00:33:28,726 --> 00:33:30,911
自然地指挥计算机
Command a computer naturally.

606
00:33:31,576 --> 00:33:32,626
在过去50年中
In the last 50 years,

607
00:33:32,626 --> 00:33:34,786
电脑的计算能力 在处理人类试图
there have been massive advances in the capacity

608
00:33:34,786 --> 00:33:37,546
以自然的方式与计算机交流方面
of computing to handle the human attempt to communicate

609
00:33:37,546 --> 00:33:39,903
取得了巨大进步
with computers in a natural way.

610
00:33:41,926 --> 00:33:45,226
我们现在有了人工智能聊天机器人
We now have Artificial Intelligence chatbots.

611
00:33:45,226 --> 00:33:48,196
预计到2030年 它将成为价值15万亿美元的行业的
Part of an industry projected to be worth $15 trillion

612
00:33:48,196 --> 00:33:49,747
一部分
by 2030,

613
00:33:51,067 --> 00:33:53,691
AI聊天机器人比之前出现的
AI chatbots are proliferating faster

614
00:33:53,716 --> 00:33:56,116
任何技术传播得都快
than any technology that came before.

615
00:33:56,116 --> 00:33:58,726
它们不仅能记住词典
And not only do they memorize dictionaries,

616
00:33:58,726 --> 00:34:02,206
还观察这些词如何被人类使用
they look at how these words have been used by humans.

617
00:34:02,206 --> 00:34:06,769
看 像ChatGPT和Google Bard这样的
See, large language model chatbots like chatGPT,

618
00:34:06,794 --> 00:34:10,881
大型语言模型聊天机器人 通过分析由开发人员选择的
and Google Bard work by analyzing millions of documents

619
00:34:10,906 --> 00:34:13,456
数百万份文档来工作
on subject chosen by the developers.

620
00:34:13,456 --> 00:34:16,756
在处理了数十亿个单词 及了解其使用方式后
After processing billions of words and how they get used,

621
00:34:16,756 --> 00:34:20,118
AI可以通过计算下一个单词出现的概率
the AI can form new coherent sentences,

622
00:34:20,143 --> 00:34:22,876
一次输出一个词 形成新的
word at a time by calculating the probability

623
00:34:22,876 --> 00:34:24,886
连贯的句子
of what the next word will be.

624
00:34:24,886 --> 00:34:27,556
通过使用互联网作为数据源
And by using the internet as the data source,

625
00:34:27,556 --> 00:34:31,340
AI可以访问人类的全部知识
the AI has access to the entirety of human knowledge.

626
00:34:31,996 --> 00:34:35,956
现在 想象一下如果我们给这个AI聊天机器人一个面孔
Now, imagine if we gave this AI chatbot a face,

627
00:34:35,956 --> 00:34:38,590
一个身体 一个化身会怎样
a body, an avatar?

628
00:34:41,627 --> 00:34:42,997
什么是化身
What's an avatar?

629
00:34:44,237 --> 00:34:47,331
这是我作为化身的样子 这是我
Here's me as an avatar, and here's me

630
00:34:47,363 --> 00:34:50,824
在1978年开始制作这些节目时的样子
when I started making these films back in 1978.

631
00:34:52,328 --> 00:34:54,692
我变年轻了
I've been de-aged.

632
00:34:55,276 --> 00:34:57,946
我可以修改数字面孔或身形
I can modify the digital face or figure to be exactly

633
00:34:57,946 --> 00:35:00,766
精确地制作出我想要的化身的样子
the kind of person I want the avatar to be.

634
00:35:00,766 --> 00:35:03,731
它可以走路 坐下 站立
It can be walking, sitting, standing.

635
00:35:03,994 --> 00:35:06,872
看 数字身体可以像我一样活动
See, the digital body can move the same way I move

636
00:35:07,576 --> 00:35:10,715
或者像其他人一样活动 比如这位舞者
or move the way somebody else moves like this dancer.

637
00:35:30,166 --> 00:35:32,656
最新的成果已经承诺有机会
The most recent work already promises the opportunity

638
00:35:32,656 --> 00:35:35,836
混合化身和虚拟现实 这样你就可以
to mix avatars and virtual reality, so that you can,

639
00:35:35,836 --> 00:35:40,366
比如 与在任何地方的同事开会
for instance, have a meeting with colleagues from anywhere,

640
00:35:40,366 --> 00:35:42,796
展示和交换你带到会议的东西
show and exchange what you brought to the meeting,

641
00:35:42,796 --> 00:35:45,466
讨论并创造在会议上想制造的任何东西
discuss and create anything the meeting wants to make,

642
00:35:45,466 --> 00:35:47,896
全都在虚拟空间中进行
and do it all in a virtual space,

643
00:35:47,896 --> 00:35:51,064
重新创造任何你喜欢的环境
recreating any kind of environment you prefer.

644
00:35:51,502 --> 00:35:53,447
（门票）

645
00:35:56,806 --> 00:36:00,586
今天 代表你的化身看起来像你
Today, the avatars representing you look like you

646
00:36:00,586 --> 00:36:02,329
但显然 它不是你
but clearly, are not you

647
00:36:02,926 --> 00:36:05,416
因为尽管计算机图形在变得更好
because although computer graphics are improving,

648
00:36:05,416 --> 00:36:06,406
我们仍处于
we are still in the realm

649
00:36:06,406 --> 00:36:09,376
人们所谓的“恐怖谷”领域
of what people call Uncanny Valley,

650
00:36:09,376 --> 00:36:11,146
图像不够真实
where it's not quite real enough,

651
00:36:11,146 --> 00:36:14,926
但也不够卡通化 介于两者之间
but not quite cartoony enough, somewhere in between.

652
00:36:14,926 --> 00:36:18,941
有些不完全像人 让人感到不安
Somewhere not quite human and weepy,

653
00:36:19,186 --> 00:36:20,656
但这种情况不会持续太久
but not for much longer.

654
00:36:20,656 --> 00:36:24,496
今天图形处理能力 已经比八年前
Graphics processing power today is already 10 times faster

655
00:36:24,496 --> 00:36:26,596
快了10倍
than it was just eight years ago,

656
00:36:26,596 --> 00:36:30,616
而且图形处理能力每2年半翻倍一次
and that power is doubling every two and a half years.

657
00:36:30,616 --> 00:36:34,246
所以 我们离一个看起来像人类的
So, we're not far off a virtual avatar that will look human

658
00:36:34,246 --> 00:36:36,706
虚拟化身不远了 那种会根据所说的话
in the way it adjusts its facial expression to suit

659
00:36:36,706 --> 00:36:38,199
调整面部表情的化身
the words it's saying.

660
00:36:44,496 --> 00:36:45,556
在短短几年内
In just a few years,

661
00:36:45,556 --> 00:36:47,626
化身可能几乎
avatars could be pretty much indistinguishable

662
00:36:47,626 --> 00:36:48,949
与真人无异
from real people.

663
00:36:50,026 --> 00:36:52,366
人工智能的进步将为
And advantages in artificial intelligence will give

664
00:36:52,366 --> 00:36:56,324
每个化身提供至少相当于人类大脑的能力
every avatar at least the equivalent of a human brain,

665
00:36:57,706 --> 00:37:01,347
但这个大脑拥有所有知识的总和
but a brain holding the sum of all knowledge,

666
00:37:03,346 --> 00:37:06,645
化身将开始无处不在
and avatars will start appearing everywhere

667
00:37:06,886 --> 00:37:08,686
它们将使生活变得更轻松
and they'll make life a lot easier.

668
00:37:08,686 --> 00:37:11,536
不用再等待我们的代理人在空闲时
No more waiting for one of our agents to answer your call

669
00:37:11,536 --> 00:37:12,946
接听你的电话
when they're free.

670
00:37:12,946 --> 00:37:15,919
与客户服务的化身交谈多久都可以
Talk to the customer services avatar for as long as you like.

671
00:37:16,186 --> 00:37:18,796
它甚至可能成为你最喜欢的电影明星
It might even be your favorite movie star,

672
00:37:18,796 --> 00:37:21,166
他们会花你想要的任意时间
and they'll take as long as you want to explain

673
00:37:21,166 --> 00:37:22,957
解释你需要知道的任何事情
whatever it is you need to know.

674
00:37:23,446 --> 00:37:25,894
没有他们回答不了的问题
And there will not be a question they can't answer.

675
00:37:29,986 --> 00:37:31,276
例如 教育
Education, for instance,

676
00:37:31,276 --> 00:37:34,186
将涉及完全逼真的教师化身
will involve totally realistic teacher avatars,

677
00:37:34,186 --> 00:37:37,096
与学生一对一教学
working with individual students one-on-one,

678
00:37:37,096 --> 00:37:40,456
以最适合每个学生的
teaching each student in the idiosyncratic way

679
00:37:40,456 --> 00:37:43,035
独特的方式教学
that suits that student best.

680
00:37:43,281 --> 00:37:45,291
当然 虚拟教师将拥有人类全部的知识
And, of course, the teachers will have the whole

681
00:37:45,316 --> 00:37:47,266
可以调用
of human knowledge to call on.

682
00:37:47,266 --> 00:37:49,629
他们将无所不知
They will know everything.

683
00:37:50,296 --> 00:37:51,166
机器可能学会读取
The machine might learn

684
00:37:51,166 --> 00:37:54,886
我们的个人面部表情 以便对我们的情绪
to read our personal facial expressions so that it can react

685
00:37:54,886 --> 00:37:56,261
做出反应
to our moods.

686
00:37:57,346 --> 00:37:59,386
给了化身一个面孔之后
And it won't belong from that point

687
00:37:59,386 --> 00:38:00,706
从那时起不久
to get avatar faces,

688
00:38:00,706 --> 00:38:03,072
它们就能表达自己的情感
they can express their own facial emotions

689
00:38:03,105 --> 00:38:05,363
作为对你的情感的回应
acting in response to yours.

690
00:38:06,406 --> 00:38:09,136
但我们已经在现在的 社交媒体的世界中
But there are questions as we are already discovering

691
00:38:09,136 --> 00:38:10,576
和能即时访问一切的情况下
in the present world of social media

692
00:38:10,576 --> 00:38:13,696
发现了一些问题 你看到的一切
and instant access is everything you see

693
00:38:13,696 --> 00:38:15,410
都是它声称的那样吗
all it claims to be.

694
00:38:16,212 --> 00:38:18,102
在不久的将来 我们看到的大多数人
But what do we see in the near future is likely

695
00:38:18,136 --> 00:38:19,786
可能是化身
to be an avatar,

696
00:38:19,786 --> 00:38:22,293
我们如何分辨真假
how will we know real from fake?

697
00:38:22,996 --> 00:38:27,176
人工智能驱动的它们 甚至可能不再需要人类
Powered by AI, they might not even need humans anymore.

698
00:38:27,526 --> 00:38:30,222
它们本身可能成为独立实体
Independent entities in themselves

699
00:38:30,916 --> 00:38:34,618
自我意识可能使这些化身
and self-awareness might give such avatars

700
00:38:34,643 --> 00:38:38,160
渴望至少与我们人类平等
the desire for at least equality with us humans.

701
00:38:39,316 --> 00:38:41,326
那么 我们需要重组我们的社会制度
So, will we need to restructure our institutions

702
00:38:41,351 --> 00:38:44,091
和文化 以包容化身吗
and our culture to include avatars?

703
00:38:44,596 --> 00:38:48,855
赋予它们社会权力 给予它们我们拥有的每一项特权
Give them social power, give them every privilege we have,

704
00:38:49,366 --> 00:38:51,019
但它们会如何使用这些
but how will they use that?

705
00:38:57,586 --> 00:38:58,966
所以 我们应该考虑
So, should we be thinking

706
00:38:58,966 --> 00:39:01,576
是否需要有 关于它们能为我们做什么
about whether we need regulations regarding exactly

707
00:39:01,576 --> 00:39:03,816
的具体规定吗
what they'll be able to do for us?

708
00:39:07,576 --> 00:39:09,237
或是 它们能对我们做什么
Or to us?

709
00:39:17,476 --> 00:39:20,207
化身对经济会有什么后果
What consequences will avatars have on the economy?

710
00:39:20,536 --> 00:39:21,916
工作岗位呢
What about jobs?

711
00:39:21,916 --> 00:39:23,535
它们会取代我们吗
Will they replace us?

712
00:39:27,496 --> 00:39:30,145
化身很快就会出现在你附近的屏幕上
Avatars are coming soon to a screen near you.

713
00:39:37,096 --> 00:39:39,754
附言 我不是化身
PS I'm not an avatar,

714
00:39:40,395 --> 00:39:41,511
或者 我是化身吗
or am I...

715
00:39:41,536 --> 00:39:43,957
我是化身吗
Or am I.