1 00:00:00,001 --> 00:00:02,320 （字幕翻译：Diana Blanchett） 2 00:00:04,444 --> 00:00:06,842 在接下来的20年里 我们将见证 In the next 20 years, we're about to see 3 00:00:06,867 --> 00:00:09,233 人类历史上 我们的生活 what may turn out to be the biggest changes 4 00:00:09,258 --> 00:00:11,953 出现的最大的变革 to the way we live in human history. 5 00:00:19,576 --> 00:00:21,092 我是詹姆斯·伯克 I'm James Burke, 6 00:00:21,117 --> 00:00:23,723 我将带你开始时间之旅 and I'm gonna take you on a journey through time, 7 00:00:23,748 --> 00:00:26,530 一起观看大约10个联结 joining up about 10 connections, 8 00:00:26,555 --> 00:00:29,202 描绘那些 最出人意料的 charting the people, objects, and ideas 9 00:00:29,227 --> 00:00:32,631 改变历史的人物 物件和思想 that change history in the most surprising ways. 10 00:00:36,234 --> 00:00:39,343 为你讲述不可思议的故事 关于我们如何走到今天 To tell you the incredible story of how we got here 11 00:00:41,531 --> 00:00:43,287 以及接下来将走向何方 and where we're going next. 12 00:00:47,508 --> 00:00:50,959 这个系列节目是关于变革的过程 This series is about the process of change 13 00:00:50,984 --> 00:00:54,203 以及为什么 我们所做的一切 正在塑造未来 and why the future is being shaped by everything we do 14 00:00:54,817 --> 00:00:57,203 而未来不会是我们想象的那样 and is not going to be what we expect. 15 00:00:58,359 --> 00:01:00,265 因为这就是变革发生的方式 Because that's the way change happens. 16 00:01:00,617 --> 00:01:05,428 因果关系 你用创新来解决问题 Cause and effect, you innovate to solve a problem, 17 00:01:05,453 --> 00:01:07,178 即使你成功了 and even if you succeed, 18 00:01:07,203 --> 00:01:10,225 也总会出现一个意想不到的结果 there's always an unexpected outcome that triggers a need 19 00:01:10,250 --> 00:01:12,937 它会触发对另一个创新的需求 依此类推 for another innovation, and so on. 20 00:01:14,694 --> 00:01:17,797 这就是为什么 过去没有人知道接下来会发生什么 That's why nobody in the past knew what was coming next. 21 00:01:19,490 --> 00:01:23,225 没有人知道 一系列的联结 No one knew the sequence of connections 22 00:01:23,250 --> 00:01:25,811 会像倒下的多米诺骨牌一样 leads like a falling set of dominoes 23 00:01:25,843 --> 00:01:29,014 导向一个将要改变人类的创新 to an innovation that's set to transform human kind. 24 00:01:30,516 --> 00:01:32,295 那么 我们接下来要去哪里 So where do we want to go from here? 25 00:01:32,320 --> 00:01:33,976 下一个联结是什么 What's the next connection? 26 00:01:40,999 --> 00:01:44,791 （联结 詹姆斯·伯克） 27 00:01:45,890 --> 00:01:49,133 （预见未来） 28 00:01:50,148 --> 00:01:55,060 我们要去这里 一台如此强大的量子计算机 This is where we're headed, a quantum computer so powerful 29 00:01:55,085 --> 00:01:59,342 有一天它将能够处理海量数据 that one day it will be able to take colossal amounts 30 00:01:59,367 --> 00:02:02,210 分析它们 并预测未来 of data, process it, and predict the future. 31 00:02:03,072 --> 00:02:04,976 因为一切都可以被预测 Because everything can be predicted, 32 00:02:05,001 --> 00:02:07,431 甚至包括你今天要穿什么衣服 down to the clothes you chose to wear today, 33 00:02:07,456 --> 00:02:10,625 这取决于时尚 天气 which was dependent on fashion, the weather, 34 00:02:10,650 --> 00:02:13,281 你的收入 你朋友的衣服 your income, your friend's clothes, 35 00:02:13,306 --> 00:02:15,656 你看的广告等等 what advertisements you watch, and so on. 36 00:02:16,179 --> 00:02:18,922 如果所有这些数据都能被处理 If all that data could be crunched, 37 00:02:19,156 --> 00:02:21,728 你就能排除一切其他的可能性 you could have eliminated all other possibilities 38 00:02:21,753 --> 00:02:24,221 预测出你的选择 and predicted that choice of yours. 39 00:02:24,626 --> 00:02:27,258 在大规模分析这样的数据时 Analyze data like that on a massive scale, 40 00:02:27,484 --> 00:02:29,879 你就能预见整个群体 and you can foresee how entire populations 41 00:02:29,904 --> 00:02:34,895 如何互动和变化 引发社会动荡 罢工 will interact and change, triggering social unrest, strikes, 42 00:02:34,920 --> 00:02:38,249 选举 经济 股票和股份 elections, economics, stocks and shares, 43 00:02:38,249 --> 00:02:41,322 所有能导致任何事件的信息 all the information that leads to any event. 44 00:02:42,179 --> 00:02:46,409 你需要的 只是一台具有难以想象的力量的计算机 All you need are computers of unimaginable power 45 00:02:46,434 --> 00:02:49,617 像时间机器一样预测未来 looking into the future like time machines. 46 00:02:51,709 --> 00:02:55,054 所以 为了看看我们如何造出了这个现实中的时间机器 So to see how we're going to get to this real life time machine, 47 00:02:55,272 --> 00:02:58,679 我们要回到200多年前 we're going back in time, over 200 years, 48 00:02:58,679 --> 00:03:02,799 1814年法国皇帝的牙签 to the Emperor of France's toothpick in 1814. 49 00:03:12,811 --> 00:03:14,969 看 那是反法同盟国 See, that's when a coalition of allies, 50 00:03:14,969 --> 00:03:17,759 包括奥地利 俄罗斯和英国 including Austria, Russia, and the United Kingdom 51 00:03:17,759 --> 00:03:20,519 最终击败法国皇帝的时候 finally beat the Emperor of the French. 52 00:03:20,519 --> 00:03:21,899 你可能听说过他 You may have heard of him, 53 00:03:21,899 --> 00:03:25,264 他的名字叫拿破仑·波拿巴 he goes by the name of Napoleon Bonaparte. 54 00:03:25,769 --> 00:03:28,229 现在 拿破仑有点像个麻烦制造者 Now, Napoleon is a bit of a trouble maker. 55 00:03:28,229 --> 00:03:30,599 他和他的法国军队 正在忙于 He and his French Army are busy invading 56 00:03:30,599 --> 00:03:33,479 入侵周边国家 以便他能接管欧洲 surrounding countries so he can take over Europe. 57 00:03:33,479 --> 00:03:35,549 欧洲倾尽全力 And it takes everything Europe has 58 00:03:35,549 --> 00:03:38,999 才阻止他 抓住他 把他送到一个 to stop him, capture him, and ship him off to somewhere 59 00:03:38,999 --> 00:03:41,100 他无法再制造麻烦的地方 he can't cause anymore trouble. 60 00:03:41,685 --> 00:03:44,909 第一个解决方案是 意大利的厄尔巴岛 The first solution, the Italian island of Elba, 61 00:03:44,909 --> 00:03:48,233 但这没起作用 因为他逃了出来 which doesn't do the job because he escapes 62 00:03:48,599 --> 00:03:50,339 又重新开始他的大业 and starts all over again. 63 00:03:50,364 --> 00:03:52,679 他们不得不再次阻止他 And they have to stop him all over again. 64 00:03:53,069 --> 00:03:54,316 第二次 The second time around, 65 00:03:54,341 --> 00:03:56,713 他们认真考虑 想到了一个 they give some serious thought to an island 66 00:03:56,738 --> 00:03:59,996 拿破仑很难逃脱的岛屿 it would be really hard for Napoleon to get away from, 67 00:04:00,021 --> 00:04:01,871 就像这个 like this one. 68 00:04:02,489 --> 00:04:06,225 一个小点 远离任何地方 A tiny dot as far from anywhere as you can get, 69 00:04:06,456 --> 00:04:10,144 在中大西洋的 一个名叫圣赫勒拿的岛 an island in the Mid-Atlantic called Saint Helena, 70 00:04:10,169 --> 00:04:12,732 人口太少 数不出来 population too small to count. 71 00:04:14,364 --> 00:04:16,654 那么 在这个小点上 曾经统治欧洲的人 So where on this tiny dot to put the man 72 00:04:16,679 --> 00:04:18,355 被安置在哪里呢 who used to rule Europe? 73 00:04:20,164 --> 00:04:24,036 当时圣赫勒拿岛上最好的房子 The best house standing on the island of Saint Helena at the time 74 00:04:24,061 --> 00:04:25,686 是这个地方 is this place, 75 00:04:25,711 --> 00:04:28,491 据说这里特别冷 a property said to be particularly cold, 76 00:04:28,516 --> 00:04:31,639 毫无魅力 而且老鼠横行 uninviting, and infested with rats. 77 00:04:32,293 --> 00:04:34,779 对于一个前皇帝来说 这根本没法住 Not much of a residence for an ex-Emperor. 78 00:04:35,990 --> 00:04:39,318 但拿破仑仍在高层有朋友 But Napoleon still has friends in high places, 79 00:04:39,857 --> 00:04:42,569 确切地说是英国政府中的同情者 sympathizers in the British government to be precise, 80 00:04:42,569 --> 00:04:44,699 所以即使他没有权力 and so he gets preferential treatment 81 00:04:44,724 --> 00:04:46,672 也得到了优待 even though he has no power. 82 00:04:46,984 --> 00:04:48,754 他们决定用他们能弄到的 They decide to fill his residence 83 00:04:48,779 --> 00:04:50,789 最精美 最华丽的东西 with the most amazing and ornate stuff 84 00:04:50,789 --> 00:04:53,399 填充他的住所 让他感觉 they can get their hands on to make him feel 85 00:04:53,399 --> 00:04:54,850 更像是家里 a bit more at home. 86 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:58,139 由英国顶级设计师和家具制造商之一 Care of one of England's top designers and furniture makers, 87 00:04:58,139 --> 00:05:00,379 乔治·布洛克负责 name of George Bullock, 88 00:05:00,404 --> 00:05:02,660 他被承包为这个曾经拥有一切的人 who's contracted to provide everything needed 89 00:05:02,685 --> 00:05:05,238 提供他所需的一切 for the man who used to have everything. 90 00:05:05,549 --> 00:05:08,129 看看布洛克制造的一些东西吧 Take a look at some of the stuff Bullock produces, 91 00:05:08,129 --> 00:05:10,499 来自美洲的桃花心木柜 mahogany cabinets from the Americas, 92 00:05:10,499 --> 00:05:12,719 来自威尔士的大理石台面桌 marble top tables from Wales, 93 00:05:12,719 --> 00:05:16,889 覆盖着优雅丝绸的英国椅子 打牌桌 elegant silk covering English chairs, card tables, 94 00:05:16,889 --> 00:05:20,699 书柜 每个房间都有召唤仆人的信号铃拉绳 book cases, bell poles to call the servants in every room, 95 00:05:20,699 --> 00:05:23,129 放置了纸和墨水的写字台 writing desks with paper and ink, 96 00:05:23,129 --> 00:05:25,379 拿破仑在这里写了他的自传 where Napoleon wrote his autobiography, 97 00:05:25,379 --> 00:05:28,857 那是整个19世纪的畅销书 the best seller of the entire 19th century. 98 00:05:29,729 --> 00:05:33,178 到处都是拿破仑最喜欢的颜色 绿色 And everywhere, Napoleon's favorite color, green. 99 00:05:34,387 --> 00:05:36,784 还有数千件其他的东西 Plus among thousands of other things, 100 00:05:36,809 --> 00:05:40,259 一个台球桌 象牙柄奶酪勺 a billiard table, ivory handled cheese scoops, 101 00:05:40,259 --> 00:05:44,249 24个胡桃钳 2个芥末罐 6个葡萄酒冰桶 24 nutcrackers, two mustard pots, six wine coolers, 102 00:05:44,249 --> 00:05:47,279 84把牙刷 还有 你猜到了 84 toothbrushes, and you guessed it, 103 00:05:47,421 --> 00:05:50,107 132根牙签 132 toothpicks. 104 00:05:51,179 --> 00:05:54,209 我们知道这一切是因为 And we know all this because of the detailed bill, 105 00:05:54,209 --> 00:05:56,219 乔治·布洛克提交了详细账单 for almost a million bucks in modern money, 106 00:05:56,219 --> 00:05:58,091 换算成现代货币价值近百万美元 presented by George Bullock. 107 00:05:58,859 --> 00:06:01,559 布洛克从世界各地的文化中 Bullock takes inspiration for his designs 108 00:06:01,559 --> 00:06:03,546 汲取设计灵感 from cultures all over the world. 109 00:06:03,994 --> 00:06:06,394 在英格兰 他曾经营一个著名的 Back in England, he famously ran a show room 110 00:06:06,419 --> 00:06:10,019 名为"希腊房间"的展厅 主题是 你猜对了 called the Grecian Rooms, themed, you guessed it, 111 00:06:10,019 --> 00:06:12,107 古希腊 on ancient Greece. 112 00:06:14,044 --> 00:06:16,714 他对其他民族和地方的热情 This enthusiasm for other people and places 113 00:06:16,739 --> 00:06:19,201 他的弟弟威廉也拥有 is also shared by his brother, William. 114 00:06:19,744 --> 00:06:23,284 现在是一个几乎没人能负担得起 Now this is a time when almost nobody can afford to travel 115 00:06:23,309 --> 00:06:25,349 走出自己国界线的旅行的时代 much beyond their own borders. 116 00:06:25,349 --> 00:06:27,569 所以威廉看到了一个机会 So William sees an opportunity, 117 00:06:27,594 --> 00:06:30,671 通过文物把世界带到人们身边 and through artifacts, brings the world to them. 118 00:06:31,229 --> 00:06:34,859 1809年 威廉在伦敦开设了一家博物馆 In 1809, William opens a museum in London 119 00:06:34,859 --> 00:06:36,561 并采用了新颖的想法 and employs the novel idea 120 00:06:36,586 --> 00:06:39,116 使用背景布和家具 of using back drops and furnishings 121 00:06:39,141 --> 00:06:42,372 为每个展品创造适当的场景 to create an appropriate setting for each exhibit, 122 00:06:42,397 --> 00:06:46,499 就像他的哥哥 为拿破仑装潢他的假宫殿那样 just like his brother did for Napoleon in his fake palace. 123 00:06:46,499 --> 00:06:50,429 讽刺的是 1816年 威廉将拿破仑的旧世界 Ironically in 1816, William brings Napoleon's former world 124 00:06:50,429 --> 00:06:54,177 带给了大众 展出了前皇帝的原始物品 to the masses, exhibiting the ex-Emperor's original possessions, 125 00:06:54,202 --> 00:06:57,359 包括在战斗中俘获的他的马车 including his carriage captured in battle. 126 00:06:57,359 --> 00:06:58,975 真是风水轮流转 Talk about come up'ns. 127 00:06:59,759 --> 00:07:03,659 布洛克在他的展览中加入了人物以增加真实性 Bullock adds people to his exhibitions to add authenticity, 128 00:07:03,659 --> 00:07:06,748 比如一个带着驯鹿的拉普兰人家庭 like a family of Laplanders with reindeers. 129 00:07:06,899 --> 00:07:09,572 甚至还有带有象形文字的木乃伊 There's even mummies with hieroglyphs. 130 00:07:11,729 --> 00:07:14,969 1823年 一次墨西哥之旅让威廉收集了足够的东西 In 1823, a trip to Mexico gets William enough stuff 131 00:07:14,969 --> 00:07:16,772 让他在次年开设了 to open an ancient and modern 132 00:07:16,797 --> 00:07:19,358 古代和现代墨西哥展览 Mexico Exhibition the following year, 133 00:07:20,940 --> 00:07:23,639 配备了一位名叫何塞·卡耶塔纳·庞塞·德莱昂的 complete with a real Mexican by the name 134 00:07:23,639 --> 00:07:26,969 真实的墨西哥人 of Jose Cayetana Ponce de León. 135 00:07:26,969 --> 00:07:29,099 自然 他会说他的母语 He speaks his native language, of course, 136 00:07:29,099 --> 00:07:31,469 但也会说意大利语和英语 but he also speaks Italian and English 137 00:07:31,469 --> 00:07:33,929 他向成千上万的游客讲述阿兹特克国王 to enthrall thousands of visitors with tales 138 00:07:33,929 --> 00:07:36,287 蒙特祖马的故事 of the Aztec King Moctezuma 139 00:07:37,864 --> 00:07:40,324 包括塑料制成的 And including plastic cast models 140 00:07:40,349 --> 00:07:43,979 阿兹特克祭祀石 金字塔 of Aztec sacrificial sterns, pyramids, 141 00:07:43,979 --> 00:07:46,049 和蒙特祖马的石头日历 and Montezuma's stone calendar, 142 00:07:46,049 --> 00:07:50,309 以及43个玻璃柜 as well as 43 glass cases stuffed with 143 00:07:50,309 --> 00:07:54,607 装满了多刺的仙人掌 香蕉 鳄梨等 prickly pear cactus, bananas, avocados, and so on. 144 00:07:56,519 --> 00:07:59,579 这场展览最终吸引了超过5万名访客 The show ends up getting more than 50,000 visitors. 145 00:07:59,579 --> 00:08:02,039 首次亮相的这种墨西哥景象 This first of it's kind view of Mexico 146 00:08:02,039 --> 00:08:05,045 完全震撼了伦敦的知识分子阶层 totally blows away the London chattering classes. 147 00:08:05,759 --> 00:08:09,599 最引人注目的是 展览的明星 一只蜂鸟 Most of all, the star of the show, a hummingbird, 148 00:08:09,599 --> 00:08:11,999 当然是填充的标本 因为当时没人 stuffed of course because nobody ever manages 149 00:08:11,999 --> 00:08:14,318 能把蜂鸟活着带回英格兰 to get the birds back to England alive. 150 00:08:17,849 --> 00:08:21,299 到现在 威廉已是林奈学会的成员 William is by now a fellow of the Linnean Society, 151 00:08:21,299 --> 00:08:24,899 率先推出了一种新的自然历史分类系统 pioneering a new natural history classification system, 152 00:08:24,899 --> 00:08:27,537 这种系统至今仍能在博物馆中看到 one we see in museums to this day. 153 00:08:29,249 --> 00:08:30,435 那么我们到在哪里了 So where are we? 154 00:08:31,324 --> 00:08:34,054 记住 我们的目的地是一台 Bear in mind that we're heading for a computer 155 00:08:34,079 --> 00:08:35,959 可以预测一切的计算机 that can predict anything. 156 00:08:38,249 --> 00:08:42,059 拿破仑被击败 并被囚禁在圣赫勒拿岛 Napoleon is defeated and incarcerated in Saint Helena, 157 00:08:42,059 --> 00:08:43,907 他的新家充满了英国设计师 where his new home is filled with stuff 158 00:08:43,932 --> 00:08:46,048 乔治·布洛克制作的东西 from English designer George Bullock, 159 00:08:46,073 --> 00:08:48,539 他的弟弟用他活灵活现的博物馆 who's brother brings the world to London 160 00:08:48,539 --> 00:08:51,149 把世界带进了伦敦 in the form of his living museums, 161 00:08:51,149 --> 00:08:54,509 深受渴望体验世界的公众的欢迎 popular with the public keen to experience the world. 162 00:08:54,534 --> 00:08:57,872 首次展示的墨西哥景象 This culminates with the first view of Mexico 163 00:08:58,154 --> 00:09:02,517 与维多利亚时代的人们初次接触到了惊艳的蜂鸟 and introduces the Victorian's to the startling hummingbird, 164 00:09:03,149 --> 00:09:06,269 最终开启了维多利亚时代的热潮 which kicks off a Victorian craze. 165 00:09:06,269 --> 00:09:09,959 最大的蜂鸟收藏 超过200种 The biggest hummingbird collection of more than 200 kinds 166 00:09:09,959 --> 00:09:12,862 最终属于一个名叫乔治·洛迪奇斯的人 ends up belonging to a guy called George Loddiges. 167 00:09:14,279 --> 00:09:16,807 他对它们着迷 欲罢不能 He's nuts about them, can't get enough. 168 00:09:17,244 --> 00:09:19,559 他写了一本关于小蜂鸟的书 He writes the book on little hummingbirds 169 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,705 来传播这个词 但从未被出版 to spread the word, but it never gets published. 170 00:09:23,879 --> 00:09:25,900 不过他的努力得到了回报 His efforts are rewarded though 171 00:09:25,925 --> 00:09:28,864 因为蜂鸟的名字Loddigesia because the hummingbird name, Loddigesia, 172 00:09:28,889 --> 00:09:32,479 至今仍以他命名 used to this day, is so-called after him. 173 00:09:33,484 --> 00:09:35,674 不满足于蜂鸟 Not content with hummingbirds, 174 00:09:35,699 --> 00:09:38,291 洛迪奇斯还分类植物 Loddiges also classifies plants. 175 00:09:38,712 --> 00:09:40,826 看 他还是一个苗圃主人 See, he's also a nursery-man 176 00:09:40,851 --> 00:09:43,268 他接管了他父亲的种子业务 who's taken over his father's seed business 177 00:09:43,293 --> 00:09:45,585 在他的园艺花园中 and grows thousands of plant varieties 178 00:09:45,610 --> 00:09:47,841 种植了数千个品种的植物 in his horticultural gardens. 179 00:09:49,534 --> 00:09:53,044 他在自己的苗圃记录手册《植物柜》中 He creates nearly 2,000 plates of plants 180 00:09:53,069 --> 00:09:56,579 收录了近2000个植物图片 in the nursery's own catalog, "The Botanical Cabinet", 181 00:09:56,604 --> 00:09:59,636 从1817年开始每月出版 which is published every month starting in 1817. 182 00:10:00,649 --> 00:10:03,329 洛迪奇斯的朋友纳撒尼尔·沃德也是一个 Loddiges's pal, Nathaniel Ward, is also a serious 183 00:10:03,329 --> 00:10:07,169 认真的植物爱好者 也收集一些东西 plant person himself, who also collects things 184 00:10:07,169 --> 00:10:08,594 放进玻璃瓶 in glass jars. 185 00:10:11,579 --> 00:10:16,224 这就是友谊如何重塑全球经济的方式 And this is where a friendship reshapes the entire global economy, 186 00:10:16,249 --> 00:10:19,071 而这一切都是因为一次意外 and it all happens because of an accident. 187 00:10:19,821 --> 00:10:23,678 沃德是一个迷恋天蛾蛹的伦敦医生 Ward is a London doctor with a perfectly understandable 188 00:10:23,711 --> 00:10:28,243 这完全可以理解 而且为什么不呢 fixation for the sphinx moth cocoon, and why not. 189 00:10:29,039 --> 00:10:31,529 沃德将蛾子 和其他东西 Ward keeps the moths, among other things, 190 00:10:31,529 --> 00:10:35,249 放在一个密封的瓶子里 里面有叶子和苔藓土壤 in a sealed bottle with leaves and moss soil. 191 00:10:35,249 --> 00:10:37,289 然后有一天 他发现瓶子里 And then one day he discovers that something odd 192 00:10:37,289 --> 00:10:39,079 发生了奇怪的事情 is going on in the jar. 193 00:10:40,282 --> 00:10:42,809 瓶内形成了冷凝水 Condensation is forming on the inside 194 00:10:42,809 --> 00:10:45,179 冷凝水滴入土壤中 and has dripped down into the soil, 195 00:10:45,204 --> 00:10:48,454 然后一个蕨类孢子发芽了 which then germinates a fern spore. 196 00:10:48,779 --> 00:10:52,619 沃德无意中创造了一个无需浇水的 Ward has inadvertently created a mini ecosystem 197 00:10:52,619 --> 00:10:54,602 小型生态系统 without the need for watering. 198 00:10:56,009 --> 00:10:58,733 沃德有了一个灵光一现的时刻 他让一个木匠 Ward has a eureka moment and gets a carpenter 199 00:10:58,758 --> 00:11:01,438 拼装制作了一个新版本的瓶子 to knock together a new version of a jar. 200 00:11:03,846 --> 00:11:04,961 看看吧 Take a look. 201 00:11:12,359 --> 00:11:16,077 这个小创新将被命名为沃德箱 This little innovation is going to be called the Wardian Case 202 00:11:16,102 --> 00:11:18,069 由木头和玻璃制成 is made of wood and glass. 203 00:11:18,749 --> 00:11:21,524 它就像一个小型温室 看到了吗 It's like a small greenhouse, see. 204 00:11:21,977 --> 00:11:24,149 比之前的瓶子大得多 Much bigger than the original jar, 205 00:11:24,174 --> 00:11:26,338 可以容纳28株植物 it can carry 28 plants. 206 00:11:27,471 --> 00:11:29,663 沃德告诉他的朋友洛迪奇斯 Ward tells his friend, Loddiges, 207 00:11:29,688 --> 00:11:32,931 洛迪奇斯抓住了扩展他植物收藏的机会 who jumps at the chance to expand his plant collection. 208 00:11:33,689 --> 00:11:38,129 洛迪奇斯建造了500个沃德箱 Loddiges constructs 500 Wardian Cases 209 00:11:38,129 --> 00:11:41,099 将植物送到澳大利亚等地 to send plants to and get plants back from 210 00:11:41,099 --> 00:11:43,282 并从当地带回植物 places like Australia. 211 00:11:43,859 --> 00:11:48,243 单次旅程有六个月 植物都能存活 A six month trip each way and the plants survive. 212 00:11:49,144 --> 00:11:51,582 对你来说这没什么 但在当时 No hum to you, but back then this 213 00:11:51,607 --> 00:11:54,586 这让世界各地的园艺学家大为震惊 knocks the socks off horticulturalists everywhere. 214 00:11:55,852 --> 00:11:58,709 因为在那时 大多数人 Because at the time, most people had never laid eyes 215 00:11:58,709 --> 00:12:01,199 从未见过异国植物 因为在此之前 on exotic plants before because up to then 216 00:12:01,199 --> 00:12:03,509 植物无法运输 plants had been impossible to ship. 217 00:12:03,509 --> 00:12:05,939 咸空气 缺乏光线和淡水 The salty air, lack of light and fresh water 218 00:12:05,939 --> 00:12:07,133 会杀死它们 kills them off. 219 00:12:08,766 --> 00:12:12,599 但现在 洛迪奇斯的全球植物分销网络 But now, Loddiges's global plant distribution network 220 00:12:12,599 --> 00:12:14,579 让他能够用没人见过的植物 enables him to fill his nursery garden 221 00:12:14,579 --> 00:12:18,929 填充他的苗圃花园 并出售它们 with stuff nobody's ever seen and sell them, 222 00:12:18,929 --> 00:12:21,196 让自己发了财 making himself a fortune. 223 00:12:24,985 --> 00:12:28,770 洛迪奇斯还拥有北伦敦最大的温室 Loddiges also owns the world's biggest hothouse in North London, 224 00:12:28,795 --> 00:12:31,674 称为大棕榈屋 and called The Grand Palm House. 225 00:12:32,069 --> 00:12:33,569 这种规模的温室 There are no other green houses 226 00:12:33,569 --> 00:12:35,625 世界上没有第二个 anywhere on this kind of scale. 227 00:12:36,239 --> 00:12:39,809 高达40英尺 这个地方可以容纳一棵完整的棕榈树 At 40 foot high, the place can hold a full-scale palm tree 228 00:12:39,809 --> 00:12:42,329 里面塞满了棕榈 and is filled to the roof with palms, 229 00:12:42,329 --> 00:12:44,876 蕨类 和异国植物 ferns, and exotic plants, 230 00:12:45,029 --> 00:12:47,339 包括一种用沃德箱 including a brand new type of orchid 231 00:12:47,339 --> 00:12:50,909 从墨西哥带回来的全新兰花 已经浇了水 brought all the way from Mexico watered and alive 232 00:12:50,909 --> 00:12:52,589 还活着 in Wardian cases. 233 00:12:52,589 --> 00:12:56,297 它的名字当然是洛迪奇斯兰花 It's name of course, Acropera loddigesii. 234 00:12:57,571 --> 00:13:00,757 棕榈屋顶部的喷水器复制了 Sprinklers in the Palm House roof replicate the conditions 235 00:13:00,782 --> 00:13:03,836 热带雾气和雨水浇灌植物的环境 showering tropical mist and rain on the plants. 236 00:13:04,545 --> 00:13:07,679 成群的游客前来观看这一奇观 Crowds of visitors come to stare at the spectacle. 237 00:13:09,689 --> 00:13:12,779 甚至查尔斯·达尔文也来了 看到乔治的花园中 Even Charles Darwin turns up and must have been blown away 238 00:13:12,779 --> 00:13:16,769 1279种不同品种的玫瑰 一定深受震撼 by visible proof of his theory of evolution through variety 239 00:13:16,801 --> 00:13:20,079 因为这就是他的物种多样性进化论的 with all the varieties of rose in George's gardens, 240 00:13:20,144 --> 00:13:23,290 有形证据 1,279 to be precise. 241 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:28,259 现在 沃德箱将大规模改变未来 Now, the Wardian Case, it's about to change the future 242 00:13:28,284 --> 00:13:33,354 由于国际间谍活动 in a big way thanks to international espionage, 243 00:13:33,989 --> 00:13:37,889 经济 政治 以及这个 economics, politics, and a part of the world 244 00:13:37,914 --> 00:13:40,173 仍然对西方世界关门的国家 still closed to the West, 245 00:13:41,024 --> 00:13:41,946 中国 China. 246 00:13:42,569 --> 00:13:44,789 看 在19世纪初 See, in the early 19th century, 247 00:13:44,789 --> 00:13:47,189 中国几乎是唯一一个 China is pretty much the only major producer 248 00:13:47,189 --> 00:13:51,102 英国人离不开的饮料的主要生产国 of the one beverage no Brit can do without, 249 00:13:51,456 --> 00:13:52,368 茶 tea. 250 00:13:56,434 --> 00:13:59,284 英国向中国出口如此多的银子 Britain is exporting so much silver to China 251 00:13:59,309 --> 00:14:02,189 来支付茶款 英国政府担心 to pay for the tea, the British government is scared 252 00:14:02,189 --> 00:14:06,089 英国会破产 而中国凭借其茶叶垄断 the U.K. will go broke, while China, with its tea monopoly, 253 00:14:06,089 --> 00:14:09,274 看起来将成为世界的超级经济大国 looks like becoming the world's economic super power. 254 00:14:10,054 --> 00:14:14,164 这就是为什么在1848年 一些相当不择手段的人 This is why in 1848, a rather unscrupulous outfit 255 00:14:14,189 --> 00:14:17,759 他们被称为由英国政府支持的东印度公司 called the British government backed East India Company, 256 00:14:17,759 --> 00:14:20,729 寻找另一种解决茶叶问题的方法 are looking for another way to solve the tea problem, 257 00:14:20,754 --> 00:14:22,493 并支付更少的钱 but pay less for it. 258 00:14:23,102 --> 00:14:26,977 正如我所说 他们想到了一个小小的沃德箱 And as I said, they come across a little Wardian Case. 259 00:14:27,243 --> 00:14:30,119 他们迅速想出了一个解决方案 Quick as a flash, they hire a solution, 260 00:14:30,119 --> 00:14:32,961 苏格兰植物学家罗伯特·福钧 Scottish botanist Robert Fortune. 261 00:14:34,469 --> 00:14:37,469 他们派他去中国执行秘密任务 They sent him on a secret mission to China, 262 00:14:37,469 --> 00:14:39,704 配备了数十个箱子 equipped with dozens of cases. 263 00:14:41,609 --> 00:14:45,119 这是一个秘密任务 因为中国境内 It is a secret mission because China's interior 264 00:14:45,119 --> 00:14:47,071 不接待任何外国人 is closed to all foreigners. 265 00:14:47,219 --> 00:14:49,199 福琼不得不戴上辫子 And Fortune has to wear a pigtail 266 00:14:49,199 --> 00:14:52,799 穿上中国的衣服 用破碎的普通话说话 and dress up in Chinese clothes and speak fractured Mandarin 267 00:14:52,799 --> 00:14:54,539 好像他来自中国某个遥远的省份 as if he comes from some remote province 268 00:14:54,539 --> 00:14:57,126 来到了离他的中国老家很远的地方 a long way from where he is in China at the time 269 00:14:57,599 --> 00:14:59,879 并与一个中国仆人一起旅行 and travel with a Chinese servant 270 00:14:59,879 --> 00:15:02,297 以应付非常复杂的句子 to handle the really complicated sentences. 271 00:15:06,239 --> 00:15:08,747 1848年 福琼出现在 In 1848, Fortune turns up 272 00:15:08,772 --> 00:15:11,875 给上海供货的一个大茶厂外 outside a big tea factory supplying Shanghai, 273 00:15:11,900 --> 00:15:13,619 厂长被问及 and the factory boss is asked 274 00:15:13,619 --> 00:15:16,199 这位尊贵的人是否可以进去 if this honorable person might be allowed in 275 00:15:16,224 --> 00:15:18,752 看看他们如何制作美妙的茶叶 to see how their wonderful tea is made. 276 00:15:20,279 --> 00:15:22,696 福琼看到他们在这么做 This is what Fortune sees them doing, 277 00:15:23,399 --> 00:15:28,399 完全是中国最大的国家安全机密 only the greatest of all Chinese national security secrets. 278 00:15:28,424 --> 00:15:30,121 （保密） 279 00:15:30,146 --> 00:15:32,200 （机密） 280 00:15:39,436 --> 00:15:42,094 首先 让茶叶在阳光下 First, let the tea leaves lie in sunlight 281 00:15:42,119 --> 00:15:43,619 晒几个小时 for a couple of hours. 282 00:15:43,619 --> 00:15:46,321 然后在热锅中炒制 Then stir fry them in a hot wok. 283 00:15:47,579 --> 00:15:49,500 然后前后滚动 Then roll them back and forth. 284 00:15:51,389 --> 00:15:53,485 然后再次炒制 Then more stir fry. 285 00:15:53,759 --> 00:15:56,249 然后将它们整理成紧密卷曲的叶子 Then sort them into tightly wound leaves 286 00:15:56,249 --> 00:15:58,461 去除任何砂砾或污物 and take out any grit or dirt. 287 00:16:00,089 --> 00:16:03,438 正如他们用普通话说的 宾果 And, as they say in Mandarin, bingo. 288 00:16:03,463 --> 00:16:05,914 （最高机密） 289 00:16:05,939 --> 00:16:08,009 现在福琼知道了这个秘密 Now that Fortune knows the secret, 290 00:16:08,009 --> 00:16:10,649 他所要做的就是将原料带出中国 all he has to do is get the raw material out of China, 291 00:16:10,649 --> 00:16:14,669 他做到了 多亏了那个老朋友沃德箱 which he does, thanks to the good old Wardian Case. 292 00:16:14,669 --> 00:16:18,419 1851年 他带着2万株幼苗和胚芽 In 1851, to the tune of 20,000 seedlings and plumules, 293 00:16:18,419 --> 00:16:21,089 偷运到印度西北部省份 smuggled to the northwest provinces of India 294 00:16:21,089 --> 00:16:25,109 那里之后建立了一个新的印度茶叶产业 to set up what will become a new Indian tea industry, 295 00:16:25,109 --> 00:16:28,188 完全由英国拥有和管理 entirely under U.K. ownership and management. 296 00:16:29,998 --> 00:16:31,555 那么 我们到哪里了 So, where are we? 297 00:16:32,129 --> 00:16:34,319 记住 所有这些联结都在引领我们 Remember, all these connections are leading us 298 00:16:34,344 --> 00:16:37,352 走向一台可以预测一切的计算机 to a computer that can predict anything. 299 00:16:41,429 --> 00:16:44,309 拿破仑被流放到一个遥远的岛屿 Napoleon is banished to a remote island, 300 00:16:44,309 --> 00:16:47,279 他的牙签由乔治·布洛克供应 where his toothpicks are supplied by George Bullock, 301 00:16:47,279 --> 00:16:49,949 乔治的弟弟进口了 whose brother imports hummingbirds 302 00:16:49,949 --> 00:16:51,689 乔治·洛迪格斯收藏的蜂鸟 collected by George Loddiges, 303 00:16:51,689 --> 00:16:54,959 洛迪奇斯的朋友纳撒尼尔·沃德发明了沃德箱 whose pal, Nathaniel Ward, invents the Wardian Case 304 00:16:54,959 --> 00:16:56,839 乔治用它建立了一个 that George uses to set up an 305 00:16:56,864 --> 00:16:59,571 国际植物分销网络 international plant distribution network. 306 00:16:59,596 --> 00:17:02,069 这改变了英国的园艺 This transforms horticulture in Britain 307 00:17:02,069 --> 00:17:05,489 并激励英国政府从中国偷茶 and inspires the British government to steal tea from China 308 00:17:05,489 --> 00:17:07,485 并在印度种植 and grow it in India. 309 00:17:07,799 --> 00:17:11,159 同时 对茶叶的热潮也短暂地 Meanwhile, the fuss over tea has also given rise 310 00:17:11,184 --> 00:17:15,713 为水手们带来了荣耀 现在即将结束 to a brief moment of glory, now about to end, for sailors. 311 00:17:15,959 --> 00:17:19,891 这个外观 是有史以来设计的最美丽的帆船之一 In the shape of some of the most beautiful sailing ships ever designed, 312 00:17:20,086 --> 00:17:23,129 它们的吃水浅 船首修长 they have a shallow draft and sleek bows 313 00:17:23,129 --> 00:17:25,799 建造它们的首要目的就是速度 and are built, above all, for speed 314 00:17:25,799 --> 00:17:28,750 以及运送轻型货物 如茶叶 and a light cargo, like tea. 315 00:17:29,309 --> 00:17:33,719 它被称为飞剪式帆船 因为它们航行得很快 Known as clippers because they sail along at quite a clip, 316 00:17:33,719 --> 00:17:35,931 比任何其他类型的船都快 faster than any other kind of ship, 317 00:17:36,209 --> 00:17:39,029 携带的帆比你能想象的还要多 carrying more sail than you could ever think possible. 318 00:17:39,029 --> 00:17:41,530 在合适的风力下 这些美丽的船 With the right wind, these beautiful ships 319 00:17:41,555 --> 00:17:43,829 有时能达到超过17节的速度 sometimes hit over 17 knots, 320 00:17:43,829 --> 00:17:46,336 像是超音速航行 which is like sailing supersonic. 321 00:17:46,859 --> 00:17:50,321 从欧洲到亚洲只需90天 Europe to Asia in just 90 days. 322 00:17:51,839 --> 00:17:54,209 当飞剪式帆船让世界惊叹时 While the clippers are amazing the world, 323 00:17:54,209 --> 00:17:57,119 更大 不那么迷人的帆船也在 bigger, less glamorous sailing ships are also running down 324 00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,079 西非海岸航行 装载货物 the West African coast, picking up cargo. 325 00:18:00,989 --> 00:18:02,669 这些船必须先到达某个地点 The ships have to turn up, 326 00:18:02,669 --> 00:18:04,559 等待货物满载 wait for a full hold of cargo, 327 00:18:04,559 --> 00:18:05,819 然后等待合适的风 and then wait for the right wind 328 00:18:05,819 --> 00:18:07,556 让它们航行回英国 to get them back to England. 329 00:18:07,829 --> 00:18:10,199 所有的这些等待意味着 国内的商人 All this hanging around means it can take a businessman 330 00:18:10,199 --> 00:18:14,099 可能需要几个月才能收到他的西非货物 back home months to get delivery of his West African goods, 331 00:18:14,099 --> 00:18:19,352 树胶 象牙 黄金 花生和动物皮革 gum, ivory, gold, ground nuts, and animal hides, 332 00:18:20,669 --> 00:18:23,669 对于飞剪式帆船来说 这些货物都太重太庞大 all goods too heavy and bulky to fit in a clipper, 333 00:18:23,669 --> 00:18:26,524 但仍然需要尽快把货运回英格兰 but still needed back in England as soon as possible. 334 00:18:27,299 --> 00:18:30,539 而西非最重要的货物 And the West African cargo that matters most 335 00:18:30,539 --> 00:18:32,548 因为它利润最高 because it makes the most profit, 336 00:18:32,573 --> 00:18:33,891 棕榈油 palm oil. 337 00:18:37,199 --> 00:18:40,499 工业需要尽可能多的棕榈油 Industry needs all the palm oil it can get 338 00:18:40,499 --> 00:18:45,141 来润滑机械 制造蜡烛 for lubrication for machinery, for candle making, 339 00:18:45,659 --> 00:18:49,532 最重要的是 为不断增长的劳动力提供食品 and above all, food for a growing workforce. 340 00:18:50,309 --> 00:18:54,239 像往常一样 这样的需求总是等待着解决方案 And as always, with demand like that waiting for a solution, 341 00:18:54,239 --> 00:18:56,017 必要性是发明之母 necessity is the mother. 342 00:18:56,042 --> 00:18:58,821 在这种情况下 是一种新型的船 In this case, a new kind of ship. 343 00:18:59,134 --> 00:19:01,458 多亏了一个名叫阿尔弗雷德·霍尔特的人 Thanks to one Alfred Holt, 344 00:19:01,483 --> 00:19:05,422 他从小就学习引擎相关的知识 who from a young age grows up learning about engines. 345 00:19:06,235 --> 00:19:10,319 然后在1865年左右 他的多胀式发动机 And then around 1865, radically changes the future 346 00:19:10,319 --> 00:19:13,493 彻底改变了未来 with his multiple expansion engine. 347 00:19:14,429 --> 00:19:16,139 这就是那个惊人的引擎 Here's the amazing engine. 348 00:19:16,139 --> 00:19:18,869 它利用从一个气缸到另一个气缸 It uses high pressure steam recycled 349 00:19:18,869 --> 00:19:20,609 回收的高压蒸汽 from one cylinder to another, 350 00:19:20,609 --> 00:19:23,249 确保没有能量被浪费 ensuring there's no wasted energy. 351 00:19:23,249 --> 00:19:26,279 这产生了足够的动力来驱动活塞 This generates enough power to drive pistons 352 00:19:26,279 --> 00:19:27,959 转动一个巨大的螺旋桨 to turn a massive propeller. 353 00:19:27,959 --> 00:19:29,519 不需要风 No need for wind. 354 00:19:29,519 --> 00:19:31,679 霍尔特将这个引擎放入一艘新蒸汽船中 Holt puts this engine into a new steam ship 355 00:19:31,679 --> 00:19:33,594 名为阿伽门农 called the Agamemnon. 356 00:19:34,169 --> 00:19:37,321 全长309英尺 非常巨大 At 309 feet long, it's huge. 357 00:19:37,852 --> 00:19:39,869 以恒定的10节速度巡航 Cruising at a constant 10 knots, 358 00:19:39,869 --> 00:19:43,529 它可以在不到60天内完成前往亚洲的旅程 it can make the journey to Asia in less than 60 days. 359 00:19:43,529 --> 00:19:48,059 突然 这艘船可以承载超过2000吨的货物， Suddenly this one ship can carry over 2,000 tons, 360 00:19:48,059 --> 00:19:51,110 相当于三艘老式飞剪式帆船的货物量 the equivalent cargo of three of the old clippers. 361 00:19:51,299 --> 00:19:55,360 因此 购买货物空位的贸易商的数量 呈指数级增长 So the number of traders buying space goes up exponentially. 362 00:19:56,159 --> 00:19:59,399 像这样的蒸汽船 可以从英国到东方 And steam ships like this can go nonstop from England 363 00:19:59,399 --> 00:20:02,519 不间断航行 无论风暴 雨天还是晴天 to the east come storm, rain, or shine, 364 00:20:02,519 --> 00:20:07,654 加油后返回 比飞剪式帆船快15天 refuel, and head back, all 15 days faster than a clipper. 365 00:20:07,679 --> 00:20:09,999 不用再等待合适的风 No more waiting for the right wind. 366 00:20:10,024 --> 00:20:14,494 （压力） 367 00:20:14,519 --> 00:20:16,589 在西非棕榈油航线上 On the West African palm oil run, 368 00:20:16,589 --> 00:20:19,930 航行中的货船几乎在一夜之间倒闭 cargo ships under sail go out of business almost overnight. 369 00:20:20,789 --> 00:20:23,819 新蒸汽船还有能力进入 The new steam ships also allow access to ports 370 00:20:23,819 --> 00:20:27,118 帆船因风向而无法到达的港口 that sail ships couldn't reach because of the wind. 371 00:20:28,439 --> 00:20:31,742 1800年 英国从西非进口 In 1800, Britain imports about 372 00:20:31,767 --> 00:20:34,696 大约200吨棕榈油 200 tons of palm oil from West Africa. 373 00:20:34,911 --> 00:20:40,256 到1850年 这个数字超过25000吨 By 1850, that figure is more than 25,000 tons 374 00:20:40,289 --> 00:20:41,914 而且还在快速上升 and rising fast. 375 00:20:43,602 --> 00:20:45,659 棕榈油的伟大之处在于 Now the great thing about palm oil is 376 00:20:45,659 --> 00:20:49,008 它易于种植 加工更容易 it's easy to grow and even easier to process. 377 00:20:51,204 --> 00:20:54,059 在西非 当地人几个世纪以来一直用它 In West Africa, the local have been using it for centuries 378 00:20:54,059 --> 00:20:56,524 做食物甚至药物 for food and even medicine. 379 00:20:56,699 --> 00:20:59,459 果实大约是橄榄大小 The fruit is about the size of an olive. 380 00:20:59,459 --> 00:21:01,439 果肉是油的来源 The pulp is where the oil comes from, 381 00:21:01,439 --> 00:21:04,739 比从动物脂肪中提取的油多得多 and there's lots more than you can get from animal fat. 382 00:21:04,739 --> 00:21:08,429 所以棕榈油树产能很大 So palm oil trees are extremely productive. 383 00:21:08,429 --> 00:21:10,709 而且需求将变得更大 And demand is going to get even bigger 384 00:21:10,709 --> 00:21:13,139 因为事实证明 棕榈油除了润滑和照明外 because it turns out one other exciting 385 00:21:13,139 --> 00:21:16,589 还能做另一件令人兴奋 and really money making thing palm oil does, 386 00:21:16,614 --> 00:21:19,323 且真正赚钱的事情 besides lubrication and lighting, 387 00:21:20,079 --> 00:21:21,501 那就是制造肥皂 is make soap. 388 00:21:25,469 --> 00:21:27,749 1884年 一个英国食品杂货商的儿子 In 1884, the son of an English grocer, 389 00:21:27,749 --> 00:21:32,279 威廉·利华和他的兄弟 与一位发明了把棕榈油 William Lever and his brother team up with a local chemist 390 00:21:32,279 --> 00:21:34,439 棉籽油和甘油混合在一起 who's invented a way of making soap 391 00:21:34,464 --> 00:21:38,713 制造肥皂的方法的当地化学家合作 with a mix of palm oil, cottonseed oil, and glycerin. 392 00:21:39,938 --> 00:21:43,379 这种新肥皂立刻大获成功 This new soap is an instant success, 393 00:21:43,379 --> 00:21:46,979 主要是因为 老方法用动物脂肪制作的肥皂 mainly because the old way to make soap with animals fat 394 00:21:46,979 --> 00:21:50,339 气味难闻 洗东西洗不干净 smells awful and doesn't give you much of a wash. 395 00:21:51,613 --> 00:21:55,222 棕榈油肥皂闻起来不错 泡沫也多 看到了吧 Palm oil soap smells nice and makes a lot of lather, see. 396 00:21:55,769 --> 00:21:58,919 但最重要的是 利华的真正才能 But what matters most is that Lever's real talent 397 00:21:58,919 --> 00:22:00,689 在于销售和营销 lies in selling and marketing. 398 00:22:00,689 --> 00:22:03,424 首先 他将新肥皂 First of all, he produces his new soap 399 00:22:03,449 --> 00:22:06,425 制作成了独立的小块 in a small individual tablet, 400 00:22:06,777 --> 00:22:09,184 针对普通工人销售 and he aims it at ordinary working people 401 00:22:09,209 --> 00:22:11,209 因为他卖的便宜 because he makes it cheap. 402 00:22:12,059 --> 00:22:14,129 这款肥皂最终有了一个 The soap ends up with the kind of name 403 00:22:14,129 --> 00:22:17,308 你想不到的名字 阳光 you'd never think of, Sunlight. 404 00:22:18,569 --> 00:22:21,059 利华将它装在特别的包装中 And Lever puts it in special wrapping, 405 00:22:21,059 --> 00:22:23,871 这是第一个品牌洗衣肥皂 the first branded laundry soap. 406 00:22:24,509 --> 00:22:25,855 他怎么可能失败呢 How could he fail? 407 00:22:34,941 --> 00:22:39,989 十年之内 阳光香皂在134个国家销售 Within a decade, Sunlight Soap is selling in 134 countries, 408 00:22:39,989 --> 00:22:44,636 还有另外两种利华洗涤产品 力士和维姆 along with two over Lever washing products, Lux and Vim. 409 00:22:45,659 --> 00:22:48,629 这里又出现了一个意想不到的后果 Here's one of our unintended consequences again, 410 00:22:48,629 --> 00:22:51,285 一个新的社会开始形成了 在这个社会中 one that forms a beginning of a society that can be 411 00:22:51,310 --> 00:22:53,683 人们可以接受教育 得到庇护和照顾 educated, sheltered, and cared for. 412 00:22:54,550 --> 00:22:57,149 看 需求如此之大 利华有了一个想法 See, demand is so great that Lever has an idea. 413 00:22:57,149 --> 00:23:01,011 在工厂旁边为工人提供住房如何 How about housing the workers next to his factories. 414 00:23:01,739 --> 00:23:04,439 1888年 利弗开始在柴郡 In 1888, Lever begins to build a model village 415 00:23:04,439 --> 00:23:09,254 为工人建造一个模范村 名为阳光港 for workers in Cheshire and called Port Sunlight. 416 00:23:13,234 --> 00:23:16,864 700栋小屋 其中一栋是莎士比亚出生地的复制品 700 cottages, one of them a copy of Shakespeare's birthplace 417 00:23:16,889 --> 00:23:19,808 你相信吗 还有自来水和浴室 would you believe, but with running water and bathrooms. 418 00:23:20,214 --> 00:23:25,503 在社会变革的新篇章中 出现了能容纳500名儿童的学校 And in a new piece of social change, schools for 500 kids, 419 00:23:25,769 --> 00:23:29,849 还有音乐厅和剧院 图书馆 健身房 as well as a concert hall and theater, library, gym, 420 00:23:29,849 --> 00:23:31,839 和露天游泳池 and open-air swimming pool. 421 00:23:32,699 --> 00:23:35,527 房租是周薪的五分之一 Rent is one fifth the weekly wage. 422 00:23:35,819 --> 00:23:38,089 还会举行社交活动 Social activities are available. 423 00:23:38,418 --> 00:23:39,793 运转良好 It works, 424 00:23:40,371 --> 00:23:43,957 工厂每周生产高达5000吨肥皂 the factory produces up to 5,000 tons of soap a week, 425 00:23:44,238 --> 00:23:45,959 但也有缺点 but there's a downside. 426 00:23:45,959 --> 00:23:48,652 丢了工作你就失去了房子 Lose your job and you lose your house. 427 00:23:49,839 --> 00:23:52,289 所以 在我们的联结 So halfway through our connections, 428 00:23:52,289 --> 00:23:54,539 通向能预测一切未来的机器的中途 leading us to the future where machines 429 00:23:54,539 --> 00:23:57,574 让我们看看我们到哪里了 can predict anything, let's see where we are. 430 00:23:59,369 --> 00:24:01,949 拿破仑的流放和他的家具 Napoleon's banishment and his furniture, 431 00:24:02,159 --> 00:24:05,269 蜂鸟 沃德箱 hummingbirds, the Wardian Case, 432 00:24:06,957 --> 00:24:10,482 中国茶在印度和中国生长 Chinese tea grows in India as well as China, 433 00:24:10,889 --> 00:24:13,979 英国经济进入工业超速运转的时代 the British economy goes into industrial overdrive, 434 00:24:13,979 --> 00:24:17,399 用来进口的快速帆船的需求激增 and surging demand to speed up sailing ship imports 435 00:24:17,399 --> 00:24:19,732 触发了霍尔特的新蒸汽引擎 triggers Holt's new steam engine. 436 00:24:21,449 --> 00:24:25,409 进口激增 尤其是棕榈油 Imports pour in, especially palm oil, 437 00:24:25,409 --> 00:24:29,552 利华和他的兄弟用它创造了阳光香皂 which Lever and his brother use to create Sunlight Soap. 438 00:24:34,829 --> 00:24:37,829 到1898年 利华拥有了第一家 By 1898, Lever has himself one of the first 439 00:24:37,829 --> 00:24:40,739 现代跨国公司 modern multi-national companies. 440 00:24:40,739 --> 00:24:42,929 他现在的挑战是打入 His challenge now is to break into 441 00:24:42,929 --> 00:24:45,458 利润丰厚的美国市场 the lucrative American market. 442 00:24:45,899 --> 00:24:47,609 这里是我们转到 And here's where we take a turn towards 443 00:24:47,609 --> 00:24:49,859 预测未来的能力的地方 our ability to predict the future. 444 00:24:49,859 --> 00:24:53,294 一切都始于说服力 It all starts with the power of persuasion. 445 00:24:53,819 --> 00:24:58,439 看这个 一个名字有趣的苏打饼干 See this, a soda cracker with an interesting name. 446 00:24:58,439 --> 00:25:02,615 我来拼写 U N E E D A I'll spell it, U-N-E-E-D-A. 447 00:25:02,939 --> 00:25:05,239 念出来你就知道是什么意思了 Pronounce it and you'll see why. 448 00:25:06,435 --> 00:25:09,899 （你需要牌饼干） 标语是 你知道你需要饼干吗 The tag is, "Do you know uneeda biscuit?" 449 00:25:09,899 --> 00:25:12,796 如果有什么东西能暗示未来会发生什么 If ever there's a hint of what's going to happen in the future, 450 00:25:12,821 --> 00:25:14,114 那就是这个 it's this. 451 00:25:14,699 --> 00:25:16,709 据说在1898年 The story goes in 1898, 452 00:25:16,709 --> 00:25:19,589 一家名叫纳贝斯克的饼干制造商 a firm of biscuit makers called Nabisco 453 00:25:19,589 --> 00:25:23,219 聘用了第一家广告公司N.W.艾尔 hires the first advertising agency, N.W. Ayer, 454 00:25:23,219 --> 00:25:24,899 为公司想要推向市场的苏打饼干 to think of a name for a soda cracker 455 00:25:24,899 --> 00:25:27,209 想出一个名字 the company wants to put on the market. 456 00:25:27,209 --> 00:25:29,849 艾尔想出了一个名字 “你需要” Ayer comes up with a name, Uneeda. 457 00:25:29,849 --> 00:25:31,386 两年后 他们每月卖出 And two years later, they're selling 458 00:25:31,411 --> 00:25:33,341 1000万包 10 million packets a month 459 00:25:33,366 --> 00:25:36,232 不得不开设新工厂来满足需求 and have to open new factories to keep up with demand. 460 00:25:38,699 --> 00:25:40,310 所以在1903年 So in 1903, 461 00:25:40,335 --> 00:25:43,739 利华尝试了他自己的实验性营销方法 Lever tries an experimental marketing approach of his own, 462 00:25:43,951 --> 00:25:47,884 他尝试了肥皂和科学结合的主意 he tries the idea of soap and science. 463 00:25:47,909 --> 00:25:51,769 在实验室里的肥皂 并采用了标语 Soap in a lab, and adopts the tag line, 464 00:25:51,794 --> 00:25:54,669 “每批次都经由专业化学家测试” "Expert Chemists Test Each Batch". 465 00:25:55,247 --> 00:25:57,899 我们在这里看到的是 世界上最早的 What we're seeing here is one of the world's 466 00:25:57,899 --> 00:26:00,269 广告营销活动之一 first advertising campaigns. 467 00:26:00,269 --> 00:26:02,519 所以 不仅仅是给你的产品取一个吸引人的名字 So rather than just coming up with an attractive name 468 00:26:02,519 --> 00:26:05,279 比如给肥皂起名为阳光 for your product, like Sunlight for soap, 469 00:26:05,279 --> 00:26:07,769 以及把你的产品装入更吸引人的包装 and packaging to make your product more attractive, 470 00:26:07,769 --> 00:26:11,159 现在 你还告诉你的潜在买家 now you also tell your prospective buyers 471 00:26:11,159 --> 00:26:13,319 它会改善他们的生活 it's going to improve their lives. 472 00:26:13,319 --> 00:26:16,619 注意普通肥皂的消耗 And notice the idea of wear and tear 473 00:26:16,619 --> 00:26:19,799 和需要用力擦洗的想法 and having to scrub hard with ordinary soaps 474 00:26:19,799 --> 00:26:22,289 因为大约在这个时候 利华还开始 because around this time, Lever also starts persuading 475 00:26:22,289 --> 00:26:25,919 说服女性顾客 他的肥皂将她们 women customers that his soap will save them 476 00:26:25,919 --> 00:26:29,052 从每天的苦差事中解救出来 那种苦差事让她们老得更快 from the daily drudgery that puts years on them. 477 00:26:34,872 --> 00:26:37,229 早在1896年 And as early as 1896, 478 00:26:37,229 --> 00:26:41,429 利华就开创了产品植入的第一个例子 Lever pioneers the first example of product placement. 479 00:26:41,429 --> 00:26:42,779 他是怎么做的呢 And how does he do it? 480 00:26:42,779 --> 00:26:47,069 在卢米埃尔兄弟的一部电影中偷偷地进行 Well, surreptitiously in a film by the Lumière brothers, 481 00:26:47,069 --> 00:26:50,459 在这个例子中 一个家庭在他们的花园里 in this case, of a family washing clothes in a tub 482 00:26:50,459 --> 00:26:51,911 用桶洗衣服 in their garden. 483 00:26:52,259 --> 00:26:55,685 注意前景中的阳光香皂盒子 Note the boxes of Sunlight Soap in the foreground. 484 00:26:56,239 --> 00:26:57,800 （阳光香皂） 485 00:26:58,157 --> 00:27:00,659 利华还将他的产品广告 Lever also puts advertising for his products 486 00:27:00,659 --> 00:27:04,109 （阳光香皂） 印在路边广告牌上 火车站 on roadside billboards, at railroad stations, 487 00:27:04,134 --> 00:27:05,796 （阳光香皂） 和地方报纸上 and in local papers. 488 00:27:06,634 --> 00:27:08,524 然后在1920年代和30年代 And then in the 1920s and 30s comes 489 00:27:08,549 --> 00:27:10,950 广告的变革者出现了 an advertising game changer, 490 00:27:11,662 --> 00:27:12,747 广播 radio. 491 00:27:17,999 --> 00:27:20,489 多亏了一种新型节目 很快就吸引了 Thanks to a new kind of program that is soon getting 492 00:27:20,489 --> 00:27:24,209 大批听众 以系列广播节目的形式 big audiences in the form of a series of radio shows, 493 00:27:24,209 --> 00:27:27,479 每周和每天的播放 讲述的都是 both weekly and daily, all about the lives 494 00:27:27,479 --> 00:27:29,999 迷人的角色们的生活 他们的故事 of the glamorous characters whose goings on 495 00:27:29,999 --> 00:27:34,169 足够复杂 让你想收听下一集 看看他们 are complicated enough for you to tune into the next show 496 00:27:34,194 --> 00:27:35,967 又有什么新鲜事了 to see what happens to them. 497 00:27:36,749 --> 00:27:41,009 利华用赞助款的方式 来资助这些节目 Lever funds these shows by way of sponsorship for a price. 498 00:27:41,009 --> 00:27:43,829 他们在节目中植入了产品 They get product placement in the shows. 499 00:27:43,829 --> 00:27:45,839 赞助这些节目的大多数其他公司 Most of the other companies sponsoring these shows 500 00:27:45,839 --> 00:27:48,749 也在从事洗涤业务 are also in the business of washing materials, 501 00:27:48,749 --> 00:27:53,699 所以这些新广播节目 被称为肥皂剧 so the new radio shows become known as soap operas. 502 00:27:53,699 --> 00:27:56,549 这是最早的节目之一的片段 Here's a bit of one of the earliest shows. 503 00:27:56,549 --> 00:27:58,089 早上好 广播听众 Good morning, radio listeners. 504 00:27:58,114 --> 00:28:01,786 克拉拉 卢和艾姆 由高露洁-棕榄公司 Clara Lou and Em, brought to you by Colgate Palm Olive, 505 00:28:01,811 --> 00:28:03,389 棕榄肥皂的制造商 为您带来 the makers of Palm Olive soap. 506 00:28:03,389 --> 00:28:05,669 我希望您能试用这款出色的肥皂 I wish that you would try this splendid soap 507 00:28:05,669 --> 00:28:07,019 只需30天 for just 30 days. 508 00:28:07,019 --> 00:28:09,389 之后您会一直想用它 You'll want to use it always after that. 509 00:28:09,389 --> 00:28:11,969 现在 由于赞助广告并不便宜 Now, since sponsorship advertising isn't cheap, 510 00:28:11,969 --> 00:28:13,439 这引发了赞助商 it triggers a lot of questions 511 00:28:13,439 --> 00:28:15,719 有许多问题想知道答案 that the sponsors need answers to. 512 00:28:15,719 --> 00:28:17,779 我们花的钱得到了什么 What are we getting for our money? 513 00:28:18,269 --> 00:28:21,329 我的意思是 你的产品获得了大量观众吗 I mean, are you getting a big audience for your product? 514 00:28:21,329 --> 00:28:22,769 观众是什么样的 What kind of audience? 515 00:28:22,769 --> 00:28:24,749 （正在直播） 人们听什么节目 What shows do people listen to? 516 00:28:24,774 --> 00:28:28,468 在一天或一周的什么时间听 听多久 What time of day or week and for how long? 517 00:28:28,896 --> 00:28:33,552 最重要的是 从根本上说 广播能卖产品吗 Above all, basically does radio sell product? 518 00:28:33,577 --> 00:28:34,684 （力士） 519 00:28:34,709 --> 00:28:37,199 最后一个问题 来自美国的利华的广告经理 That last question from the Lever advertising manager 520 00:28:37,199 --> 00:28:40,769 引起了两位麻省理工学院风格的人士 in the U.S. catches the interest of a couple of MIT types 521 00:28:40,769 --> 00:28:44,005 罗伯特·埃尔德和路易斯·伍德鲁夫的兴趣 called Robert Elder and Louis Woodruff. 522 00:28:44,669 --> 00:28:47,669 1936年 他们为解决方案申请了专利 And in 1936, they patent the solution. 523 00:28:47,669 --> 00:28:50,810 用一个叫做 自动播音记录器的电子设备 Survey the audience electronically 524 00:28:51,509 --> 00:28:54,349 来调查观众 with a gizmo called an Audiometer. 525 00:28:57,239 --> 00:28:58,661 这就是它的作用 Here's what it does. 526 00:28:59,544 --> 00:29:01,259 收音机有一个旋钮 你旋转它 The radio has a dial you turn 527 00:29:01,259 --> 00:29:03,669 来调到你想听的电台 to tune to the station you want. 528 00:29:03,869 --> 00:29:05,909 收音机连接到自动播音记录器 The radio is linked to the Audiometer, 529 00:29:05,909 --> 00:29:09,138 自动播音记录器装有齿轮并与旋钮相连 which is fitted with gears and connected to the dial. 530 00:29:09,419 --> 00:29:12,449 当你转动旋钮时 自动播音记录器的机械臂 As you turn the dial, the Audiometer arm, 531 00:29:12,449 --> 00:29:13,949 它的末端带有一支笔 with a pen on the end of it, 532 00:29:13,949 --> 00:29:17,129 在缓慢铺开的纸带上摆动 moves across a slowly unrolling strip of paper 533 00:29:17,129 --> 00:29:19,979 一旦人们确定了电台 摆动就停止 and stops once the station is chosen. 534 00:29:19,979 --> 00:29:21,989 然后纸带继续向前滚动 And then the paper goes on rolling 535 00:29:21,989 --> 00:29:25,139 笔在纸上持续画出连续的线 and the pen keeps marking a continuous line on the paper, 536 00:29:25,139 --> 00:29:27,778 表示出他们听了多久这个电台 indicating how long they listened for. 537 00:29:28,229 --> 00:29:31,799 它会一直这样做 直到纸用完 And it will do all this till the paper runs out, 538 00:29:31,799 --> 00:29:33,329 一个月纸才用完 which takes a month. 539 00:29:33,329 --> 00:29:36,329 到那时 调查观众的人员会过来 At which point, the audience research people turn up 540 00:29:36,329 --> 00:29:38,552 取走纸卷进行分析 and take the roll for analysis. 541 00:29:43,229 --> 00:29:46,859 所有这些都在罗伯特·埃尔德 All this is described in a presentation by Robert Elder 542 00:29:46,859 --> 00:29:49,169 在纽约耶鲁俱乐部的市场研究委员会 during a meeting of the Market Research Council 543 00:29:49,169 --> 00:29:51,239 会议上的演讲中阐述 at the New York Yale Club. 544 00:29:53,939 --> 00:29:55,559 观众中有一位 And one of the people in the audience, 545 00:29:55,559 --> 00:30:00,089 有个好主意的人 名叫亚瑟·尼尔森 who has a lovely idea, is a chap called Arthur Nielsen, 546 00:30:00,089 --> 00:30:03,950 他已经有了一家分析商店销售数额的公司 who already has a company analyzing sales figures for stores. 547 00:30:10,049 --> 00:30:15,049 到1946年 尼尔森在1100个家庭中 安装了1300个自动播音记录器 By 1946, Nielsen has 1,300 Audiometers in 1,100 homes 548 00:30:15,059 --> 00:30:16,859 花了近10年时间 and has spent nearly 10 years 549 00:30:16,859 --> 00:30:19,246 和200万美元才做到 and two million dollars to get there. 550 00:30:19,271 --> 00:30:21,599 他研究了每个目标家庭的 And he's researched all of the families 551 00:30:21,599 --> 00:30:24,671 所有家庭成员 有多少人 in each of the target homes, how many people, 552 00:30:24,696 --> 00:30:26,364 孩子多大 at what age children, 553 00:30:28,859 --> 00:30:30,389 他们的工作和收入 their jobs and incomes, 554 00:30:30,389 --> 00:30:32,249 以及他们需要知道的任何其他信息 and anything else they need to know 555 00:30:32,249 --> 00:30:36,059 以便纸带分析能显示 谁在什么时候听什么 so the tape analysis shows who's listening to what when. 556 00:30:36,059 --> 00:30:38,039 当然 我说的尼尔森就是 Of course the Nielsen I'm talking about 557 00:30:38,039 --> 00:30:41,399 尼尔森收视率背后的那个人 is the guy behind Nielsen ratings, 558 00:30:41,399 --> 00:30:45,169 从广播走向电视时代时 尼尔森收视率开始运转 which move on from radio to TV once that's up and running. 559 00:30:54,389 --> 00:30:56,789 尼尔森如何处理这么多数据 How can Nielsen process so much data? 560 00:30:56,789 --> 00:30:59,459 靠的是巧合 Well, by coincidence. 561 00:30:59,459 --> 00:31:02,819 在第二次世界大战中 美国生产了 See, in World War II, the U.S. is churning out 562 00:31:02,819 --> 00:31:04,919 许多新型炮弹 lots of new types of artillery shells 563 00:31:04,919 --> 00:31:07,239 可以击中远距离目标 that can hit distant targets. 564 00:31:07,739 --> 00:31:10,139 为了精确 必须有人 To be accurate, somebody has to calculate 565 00:31:10,139 --> 00:31:11,909 根据一系列变量计算出 all their possible trajectories, 566 00:31:11,909 --> 00:31:14,669 它们所有可能的轨迹 based on a whole host of variables. 567 00:31:14,669 --> 00:31:19,503 炮弹大小 枪管长度 风速 距离 Shell size, length of barrel, wind speed, distance, 568 00:31:19,528 --> 00:31:20,755 你能想到的都有 you name it. 569 00:31:21,509 --> 00:31:23,909 一个炮弹轨迹表在当时 A shell trajectory table would've taken 570 00:31:23,909 --> 00:31:26,669 需要一个人类数学家 大多数是女性 a human mathematician, at the time mostly women, 571 00:31:26,669 --> 00:31:29,429 超过30小时来计算 more than 30 hours to calculate. 572 00:31:29,429 --> 00:31:31,709 顺便说一句 这些女性被称为计算者 These women, by the way, are known as people who compute 573 00:31:31,709 --> 00:31:36,146 或计算机 因此现代机器的名称就出现了 or computers, hence the modern word for the machine. 574 00:31:36,989 --> 00:31:38,857 但这即将改变 But that's about to change. 575 00:31:39,583 --> 00:31:41,459 巧合出现在了这里 Here comes the coincidence. 576 00:31:41,459 --> 00:31:44,549 在战争期间 尼尔森的儿子 During the way, Nielsen's son has been working 577 00:31:44,549 --> 00:31:46,619 在马里兰州阿伯丁的一个 at a military establishment called 578 00:31:46,619 --> 00:31:50,129 名为弹道研究实验室的军事机构工作 the Ballistic Research Lab in Aberdeen, Maryland, 579 00:31:50,129 --> 00:31:53,939 他们在那里建造一台顶级机密的 30吨重的军事机器 where they're building a top secret 30 ton military machine 580 00:31:53,939 --> 00:31:57,389 以帮助美国炮兵提高精确度 to help make American artillery more accurate. 581 00:31:57,389 --> 00:31:59,789 这全都要归功于一个突破 它将塑造 And it's all thanks to a breakthrough that will shape 582 00:31:59,789 --> 00:32:01,474 我们今天所做的一切 everything we do today. 583 00:32:05,819 --> 00:32:07,224 玻璃管 Glass tube. 584 00:32:08,106 --> 00:32:11,208 事实上 它一直存在于收音机和电视机中 In fact, it's been inside radios and TVs all along. 585 00:32:11,528 --> 00:32:14,909 一个名叫弗莱明的人在1904年 A little gizmo invented back in 1904 by a guy 586 00:32:14,909 --> 00:32:19,138 为马可尼无线电公司发明的小装置 called Fleming, working for the Marconi Radio Company. 587 00:32:20,639 --> 00:32:23,069 它被称为真空管 It's called a vacuum tube. 588 00:32:23,069 --> 00:32:26,489 它基本上是一个内部是真空的玻璃管 Basically, it's a glass tube with a vacuum inside. 589 00:32:26,489 --> 00:32:30,402 里面还有一块叫做阴极的金属 Also in there is a bit of metal called a cathode. 590 00:32:30,427 --> 00:32:33,479 加热它 它会释放电子 Heat it and it gives off electrons. 591 00:32:33,479 --> 00:32:35,189 它们流向管子的另一端 They flow to the other end of the tube 592 00:32:35,189 --> 00:32:39,059 到达另一个未加热的 叫做阳极的金属 to another unheated bit of metal called an anode, 593 00:32:39,059 --> 00:32:40,979 然后发出信号 which then gives off a signal. 594 00:32:40,979 --> 00:32:44,990 当这种情况发生时 真空管被描述为导通 When that happens, the vacuum tube is described as on. 595 00:32:45,269 --> 00:32:48,509 现在 你在阴极和阳极之间加一个栅级 Now, you add a grid between the cathode and an anode, 596 00:32:48,509 --> 00:32:50,339 给那个栅级通电 put a current onto that grid, 597 00:32:50,339 --> 00:32:53,003 它就会阻止电子流向阳极 and it stops the flow of electrons to the anode. 598 00:32:53,028 --> 00:32:56,239 所以现在真空管被截止了 So now the vacuum tube is off, 599 00:32:56,429 --> 00:32:59,159 电子流可以像这样被干扰 and the electron flow can be interrupted like that 600 00:32:59,159 --> 00:33:02,129 惊人的每秒10万次 an amazing 100,000 times a second 601 00:33:02,129 --> 00:33:04,889 任何给栅级施加负载的信号 by any signal that puts a load onto the grid 602 00:33:04,889 --> 00:33:07,253 并暂时阻断电子流 and temporarily blocks the electron flow, 603 00:33:07,278 --> 00:33:08,904 都可以截止真空管 turning a tube off. 604 00:33:09,152 --> 00:33:11,704 所有这些复杂的术语 基本上只是组成了 All that gobbly gook basically adds up 605 00:33:11,729 --> 00:33:16,317 一个能用天文数字形容的 快速的开关加法机 to just an astronomically fast on off adding machine. 606 00:33:19,469 --> 00:33:21,239 这个能做这些聪明的事情的 The amazing calculating machine 607 00:33:21,239 --> 00:33:24,569 了不起的计算机器被称为ENIAC that will do this clever stuff is called ENIAC, 608 00:33:24,569 --> 00:33:27,719 电子数值积分计算机 electronic numerical integrator and computer. 609 00:33:27,744 --> 00:33:30,241 它塞满了整个房间 And it fills a room. 610 00:33:31,289 --> 00:33:33,989 ENIAC有超过17000个真空管 ENIAC has more than 17,000 vacuum tubes 611 00:33:33,989 --> 00:33:35,759 来进行开关计数 to do the on off counting, 612 00:33:35,759 --> 00:33:38,399 它使用的电力足够一个小城镇使用 and it uses enough power for a small town. 613 00:33:38,399 --> 00:33:42,299 它还有70000个电阻 10000个电容器 It also has 70,000 resisters, 10,000 capacitors, 614 00:33:42,299 --> 00:33:45,888 6000个开关 和1500个继电器 6,000 switches, and 1,500 relays. 615 00:33:47,039 --> 00:33:49,409 不管你怎么看待它 ENIAC将改变的 Whichever way you slice it, ENIAC is going to change 616 00:33:49,409 --> 00:33:52,679 不仅是弹道轨迹 而是一切 not just ballistic trajectories, but everything, 617 00:33:52,679 --> 00:33:57,692 因为它能运行难以置信的 每秒5000次的计算 because it does a mind boggling 5,000 calculations a second. 618 00:33:58,019 --> 00:34:00,809 所以对于做弹道表格的人来说 So for the ballistics people doing the gun tables, 619 00:34:00,809 --> 00:34:03,419 这是他们梦想中的解决问题的方案 it's a dream solution to their problems. 620 00:34:04,575 --> 00:34:06,689 那么这个如何联结到未来那个 So where does this connect to a future 621 00:34:06,689 --> 00:34:08,646 未来可以预测一切的机器呢 where machines can predict anything? 622 00:34:10,269 --> 00:34:14,434 尼尔森的儿子把他了解到的ENIAC的一切 告诉了他的父亲 Well, Nielsen's son, tells his father all about ENIAC, 623 00:34:14,459 --> 00:34:16,889 战后 老尼尔森得到了 and after the war, Nielsen Senior gets ahold of 624 00:34:16,889 --> 00:34:19,169 由IBM制造并基于ENIAC军事技术的 one of the world's first electronic computers, 625 00:34:19,169 --> 00:34:23,036 世界上第一批电子计算机之一 made by IBM and based on the ENIAC military technology. 626 00:34:23,519 --> 00:34:25,849 体积小得多 它仍然可以每秒进行 Much smaller, it can still do more than 627 00:34:25,849 --> 00:34:28,138 超过10000次操作 10,000 operations a second. 628 00:34:28,458 --> 00:34:32,249 这让尼尔森能够 在他研究更大更复杂的 That allows Nielsen to calculate his nationwide ratings data 629 00:34:32,249 --> 00:34:34,709 电视收视率市场时 at the kind of scale and speed he needs 630 00:34:34,709 --> 00:34:36,959 能拥有足够的计算规模和计算速度 once he gets into the much bigger and more complicated 631 00:34:36,959 --> 00:34:38,833 来计算全国收视率数据 TV ratings market. 632 00:34:41,333 --> 00:34:43,649 多亏了计算机 尼尔森可以运行 Thanks to the computer, Nielsen can process 633 00:34:43,649 --> 00:34:46,409 一种统计方式 例如 a statistical technique that allows, for instance, 634 00:34:46,409 --> 00:34:50,399 让汽车制造商找到 会看他们的广告 并且有可能 a car manufacturer to find customers who will watch their ad 635 00:34:50,399 --> 00:34:52,469 购买他们制造的汽车的客户 and likely buy the car they make, 636 00:34:52,469 --> 00:34:55,840 这样他们就可以 只针对这些人投放广告 so they can aim their ads only at them. 637 00:34:56,879 --> 00:34:59,357 你是这样找到你的买家的 You find your buyers like this. 638 00:34:59,958 --> 00:35:01,924 首先 将潜在消费者分成 First, split potential consumers 639 00:35:01,949 --> 00:35:05,819 高收入 和非高收入两类 between those upper income and those not. 640 00:35:05,819 --> 00:35:07,319 然后在高收入者中 Then of the upper income, 641 00:35:07,319 --> 00:35:10,289 分成买车 和不买车的人 between those who buy cars and those not. 642 00:35:10,289 --> 00:35:15,289 然后在买车的人中 分成买跑车 和不买跑车的人 Then of car buyers, those who buy sports cars and those not. 643 00:35:15,471 --> 00:35:17,074 然后在跑车买家中 Then of sports car buyers, 644 00:35:17,107 --> 00:35:20,879 分成买经典款式 和不买经典款式的人 those who buy classic styles and those not. 645 00:35:20,879 --> 00:35:22,289 然后在经典款买家中 Then of classic buyers, 646 00:35:22,289 --> 00:35:25,779 分成喜欢手动挡 和不喜欢手动挡的人 those who go for stick shift and those not. 647 00:35:26,039 --> 00:35:27,899 然后在那些手动挡使用者中 Then of those stick shift users, 648 00:35:27,899 --> 00:35:31,028 分成喜欢意大利车 和不喜欢意大利车的人 those who prefer Italian and those not. 649 00:35:31,289 --> 00:35:34,679 最后一组 就是你的目标样本 This final set is your target sample. 650 00:35:34,679 --> 00:35:37,817 富裕 且可能购买你的产品 Rich and likely to buy your product. 651 00:35:39,299 --> 00:35:42,449 给出你这些信息的统计过程 This statistical process giving you this information 652 00:35:42,449 --> 00:35:45,299 看起来像树上的枝条和叶子 looks like branches and twigs and leaves on a tree, 653 00:35:45,299 --> 00:35:47,966 它被称为决策树 and it's called a decision tree. 654 00:35:48,209 --> 00:35:50,549 如果你回到你的初始人口样本 And if you go back to your starting population sample 655 00:35:50,549 --> 00:35:53,849 并改变他们的选择偏好 and change the conditions of their choice in some way, 656 00:35:53,849 --> 00:35:55,589 你就可以回到你的树上 you can then go back to your tree 657 00:35:55,589 --> 00:35:58,559 看到最后那片叶子会是另一个样子的 and see how the final leaf ends up different. 658 00:35:58,559 --> 00:36:01,409 如果你的搜索涉及一个非常复杂的问题 And if your search involves a really complex issue 659 00:36:01,409 --> 00:36:04,319 和一个非常大的人口总量 你可以同时使用几棵树 and a really big population, you can use several trees 660 00:36:04,319 --> 00:36:07,649 统计学家给它起了另一个名字 at once in what statisticians call, what else, 661 00:36:07,649 --> 00:36:09,825 决策森林 a decision forest. 662 00:36:12,536 --> 00:36:15,299 电脑计算给了尼尔森 Computing gives Nielsen the kind of capabilities 663 00:36:15,299 --> 00:36:17,333 前所未有的能力 nobody's ever had before. 664 00:36:17,819 --> 00:36:21,329 最重要的是 他可以通过广播数据分析出 Above all, the means to analyze from his radio's data 665 00:36:21,329 --> 00:36:24,269 有关电视观众的更多详细信息 much more detailed stuff about TV viewers. 666 00:36:24,269 --> 00:36:27,089 此外 他还可以分析出 如果他想向这些人销售零售产品 And a few other things regarding what any retail product 667 00:36:27,089 --> 00:36:30,185 那销售零售产品应该是什么样子 ought to be if he wants to sell to those people. 668 00:36:30,210 --> 00:36:32,149 现在简单了 萨尼清洁剂 But now it's easy. The Sani-Flush. 669 00:36:32,174 --> 00:36:35,914 （更有效的清洁碗碟成分） 和什么样的图片和文字 可能有助于销售它 And what kind of pictures and words might help to sell it. 670 00:36:35,939 --> 00:36:39,419 因此 电视节目的形式改变 As a consequence, the shape of TV programming changes 671 00:36:39,419 --> 00:36:42,299 通过将广告位 与最受欢迎的节目搭配 to boost revenues by matching advertising spots 672 00:36:42,299 --> 00:36:44,159 来增加收入 with the most popular shows. 673 00:36:44,159 --> 00:36:47,969 所以首先 广播肥皂剧 变成了电视肥皂剧 So first of all, the radio soaps moving to television. 674 00:36:47,969 --> 00:36:52,919 果然 电视肥皂剧俘获了巨大的观众 And sure enough, TV soaps get giant audiences. 675 00:36:54,685 --> 00:36:58,409 那么这一切如何引领我们走向 未来世界中 So how is all of this leading us to a future 676 00:36:58,409 --> 00:37:00,989 机器可以预测未来呢 where machines predict the future? 677 00:37:01,979 --> 00:37:03,724 让我们看看我们走了多远 Let's see how far we've come. 678 00:37:07,144 --> 00:37:09,670 拿破仑的流放和他的家具 Napoleon's banishment and his furniture, 679 00:37:09,997 --> 00:37:12,989 蜂鸟 沃德箱 hummingbirds, the Wardian Case, 680 00:37:12,989 --> 00:37:16,747 中国茶 霍尔特的新的船引擎 Chinese tea, Holt's new ship engine, 681 00:37:16,912 --> 00:37:20,399 棕榈油 利华的棕榈油肥皂 palm oil, Lever's palm oil soap, 682 00:37:20,399 --> 00:37:22,769 以及广播和电视肥皂剧 and the radio and TV soap operas, 683 00:37:22,769 --> 00:37:25,979 尼尔森需要知道电视和广播的观众人数 Nielsen's need to get TV and radio audience numbers 684 00:37:25,979 --> 00:37:28,091 引发了自动播音记录器 triggers the Audiometer. 685 00:37:28,716 --> 00:37:31,019 真正庞大的观众数据 将二战时的新计算机 Really big number audience data takes Nielsen 686 00:37:31,019 --> 00:37:33,869 带给了尼尔森 to the new World War II computer 687 00:37:33,869 --> 00:37:37,829 以及电脑计算 如何运行巨大的决策树 and how computing helps to operate the vast decision tree 688 00:37:37,829 --> 00:37:40,169 显示谁会买什么 that shows you who's going to buy what. 689 00:37:43,919 --> 00:37:45,389 这里开始涉及的不仅仅是 And here's where it gets into more than 690 00:37:45,389 --> 00:37:47,036 广告和销售 advertising and sales. 691 00:37:49,646 --> 00:37:51,389 当尼尔森得到他的计算机时 When Nielsen gets his computer, 692 00:37:51,389 --> 00:37:53,639 一台类似的计算机器在 a similar computing machine gets used 693 00:37:53,639 --> 00:37:56,583 1952年总统选举中使用 in the 1952 Presidential elections. 694 00:37:57,239 --> 00:38:00,269 这台机器计算早期的投票结果数据 This machine calculates the early vote return numbers 695 00:38:00,269 --> 00:38:05,489 并以99%的准确率 预测艾森豪威尔的胜利 and predicts Eisenhower's win with 99% accuracy. 696 00:38:07,661 --> 00:38:10,049 如此令人惊愕且难以置信 So amazing and unbelievable, 697 00:38:10,049 --> 00:38:12,911 电视工作人员不想把预测结果直播出去 TV people didn't want to put the prediction on air. 698 00:38:17,309 --> 00:38:20,249 我们现在正稳步走向一个 We are now well on our way to a future 699 00:38:20,249 --> 00:38:22,122 我们可以预测一切的未来 where we can predict anything. 700 00:38:28,412 --> 00:38:32,096 今天 我们可以在一个针头大小的芯片上 Today, we can replicate all 30 tons of ENIAC on a chip 701 00:38:32,129 --> 00:38:33,583 复现整个30吨的ENIAC the size of a pinhead. 702 00:38:34,169 --> 00:38:36,029 现在使用这种技术的 One of the most powerful super computers 703 00:38:36,029 --> 00:38:40,623 最强大的超级计算机之一 有网球场两个大小 using that technology is now the size of two tennis courts. 704 00:38:41,009 --> 00:38:42,869 我们已经可以常规地使用计算机 We're able routinely to use computers 705 00:38:42,869 --> 00:38:45,569 来预测比任何总统选举 to forecast events immensely more complex 706 00:38:45,569 --> 00:38:47,536 复杂得多的事件 than any presidential election. 707 00:38:50,279 --> 00:38:52,829 我们用它们来预测自然界中 We use them to predict one of the most intricate 708 00:38:52,829 --> 00:38:54,809 每天发生的 最错综复杂的 and complex activities happening every day 709 00:38:54,809 --> 00:38:56,365 活动之一 in the natural world, 710 00:38:56,669 --> 00:38:58,919 那个每秒同时有 one that changes in thousands of ways 711 00:38:58,944 --> 00:39:00,793 上千种变化的 simultaneously every second, 712 00:39:01,097 --> 00:39:02,418 天气 the weather. 713 00:39:03,389 --> 00:39:06,059 要得到一个真实可信的天气预报 A huge amount of variables need to be factored in 714 00:39:06,059 --> 00:39:09,059 需要考虑大量的变量 to get anything like a reliable weather forecast, 715 00:39:09,059 --> 00:39:11,939 风速 气压 地表温度 wind speeds, air pressures, surface temperatures, 716 00:39:11,939 --> 00:39:14,399 海水温度 其他国家的 其他大陆的 sea temperature, weather events in other countries, 717 00:39:14,399 --> 00:39:16,021 天气事件 on other continents. 718 00:39:16,679 --> 00:39:20,309 预测人类行为甚至更复杂 Predicting human behavior is even more complex 719 00:39:20,309 --> 00:39:22,286 需要更多的数据 and needs even more data. 720 00:39:23,459 --> 00:39:25,169 当然了 有了超级计算 But of course with super computing, 721 00:39:25,169 --> 00:39:28,679 我们已经走到了这一步 今天可用的数据量如此之大 we've arrived at the amount of data available today so big 722 00:39:28,679 --> 00:39:31,349 我们称之为大数据 that we call it big data. 723 00:39:33,269 --> 00:39:36,899 当你了解了很多信息后能做什么 大数据给了你 Big data gives a whole new meaning to what you can do 724 00:39:36,924 --> 00:39:38,389 新的看法 when you know a lot. 725 00:39:40,997 --> 00:39:44,189 这意味着 在分析之前的人口数据 Which means that at any stage of analyzing old populations 726 00:39:44,189 --> 00:39:46,079 及其喜好的任何阶段 and their likes and dislikes, 727 00:39:46,079 --> 00:39:48,689 当讨论现在的任何问题时 you can take into account the colossal number 728 00:39:48,689 --> 00:39:51,659 人群中 人与人之间 of interactions among everybody in a population 729 00:39:51,659 --> 00:39:55,044 巨量的互动交流 你都可以考虑在内 when it comes to any issue right now. 730 00:39:57,119 --> 00:39:59,763 每个人都选择自己的人生道路 Each person chooses their own path in life, 731 00:39:59,950 --> 00:40:02,369 可能在不久后 我们第一次 and for the first time, we may soon be able 732 00:40:02,369 --> 00:40:05,339 将每个人的选择都考虑在内 to take every one of those choices into account 733 00:40:05,339 --> 00:40:08,479 在某种程度上 我们使用这些数据 塑造未来 in a way we'll use the data to shape the future. 734 00:40:09,341 --> 00:40:11,341 数据都在那里等待分析 The data's all there to analyze. 735 00:40:11,999 --> 00:40:14,129 每次敲击电脑键盘 With every computer keyboard click, 736 00:40:14,129 --> 00:40:17,880 我们已经能够收集 你买的每件东西的数据 we're already able to collect data on everything you buy, 737 00:40:19,107 --> 00:40:22,829 银行账户信息上的货币活动 你的旅行 你的鞋码 the bank details on money activity, your travel, your shoe size, 738 00:40:22,829 --> 00:40:26,309 健康 药物 医疗历史 出生地 health, medication, medical history, birth place, 739 00:40:26,309 --> 00:40:30,059 性别 婚姻状况 社会地位 孩子 gender, marital status, social status, children, 740 00:40:30,059 --> 00:40:33,539 家庭结构 保险 年龄 收入 family structure, insurance, age, income, 741 00:40:33,539 --> 00:40:37,859 开车 汽车种类 乘坐公交 火车旅行 use of car, kind of car, use of buses, train journeys, 742 00:40:37,859 --> 00:40:41,039 飞行 通勤时间表 你吃什么 flights, commuting schedule, what you eat, 743 00:40:41,039 --> 00:40:43,409 电视广播 和音乐节目的选择 TV radio and music program choices, 744 00:40:43,409 --> 00:40:45,479 你喜欢的报纸和杂志 your favorite papers and magazines, 745 00:40:45,479 --> 00:40:49,439 你的教育 工作 爱好 住所 和位置 your education, job, hobbies, residence and location, 746 00:40:49,439 --> 00:40:52,619 朋友 社交生活 语言 最喜欢的音乐 friends, social life, languages, favorite music, 747 00:40:52,619 --> 00:40:55,349 运动 俱乐部 空闲时间的活动 sports, clubs, spare time activities, 748 00:40:55,349 --> 00:40:58,349 宗教信仰 你参加的活动 你的种族 religious beliefs, events you attend, your ethnicity, 749 00:40:58,349 --> 00:41:01,709 个人仪容 宠物 甜食 性活动 personal grooming, pets, sweet tooth, sexual activities, 750 00:41:01,709 --> 00:41:06,299 技能 财务价值 投资 以及其他的一切 skills, financial worth, investments, and everything else. 751 00:41:06,299 --> 00:41:08,549 这被称为数据废气 It's called data exhaust, 752 00:41:08,549 --> 00:41:11,489 它为我们提供了 比尼尔森梦想中更多的 and it has supplied us with more information 753 00:41:11,489 --> 00:41:15,629 关于我们每个人 每天做出的 than Nielsen ever dreamt of about each and every choice 754 00:41:15,629 --> 00:41:17,810 每一个选择的信息 we make every day. 755 00:41:18,959 --> 00:41:22,739 如果所有这些决定 都能被输入一台 What if all these decisions could be fed into a machine 756 00:41:22,739 --> 00:41:25,169 可以处理这个天文数字的数据的机器 that could process this astronomical amount of data 757 00:41:25,169 --> 00:41:27,749 并预测所有可能的结果 and predict all possible outcomes 758 00:41:27,749 --> 00:41:30,149 告诉你哪个最有可能 to tell you which was most likely, 759 00:41:30,149 --> 00:41:31,958 就像天气预报一样 just like the weather forecast. 760 00:41:33,089 --> 00:41:34,979 我们已经到达了我们的目的地 We've reached our destination, 761 00:41:34,979 --> 00:41:36,929 我相信 这将把这种可能性 one which I believe will move this possibility 762 00:41:36,929 --> 00:41:40,474 从科幻领域 变为现实 from the realms of sci-fi into reality. 763 00:41:48,778 --> 00:41:52,146 一台可以预测未来的量子计算机 A quantum computer that can predict the future. 764 00:41:55,259 --> 00:41:57,719 显然处于起步阶段 这项技术 Apparently in its infancy, this technology 765 00:41:57,719 --> 00:41:59,817 将彻底变革我们的生活方式 will revolutionize the way we live. 766 00:42:00,964 --> 00:42:03,634 现在有两种方法来解释量子计算机 Now there are two ways to explain a quantum computer. 767 00:42:03,659 --> 00:42:06,209 一种是 四年的物理学学位课程 One is a four year degree course in physics 768 00:42:06,209 --> 00:42:09,060 另一种现在用时少些 and the other now takes less time. 769 00:42:10,679 --> 00:42:13,649 一个普通的传统计算机 So, an ordinary classical computer calculates 770 00:42:13,649 --> 00:42:17,519 使用0和1 或电流开或关进行计算 using zeros and ones, or an electrical current on or off. 771 00:42:17,519 --> 00:42:20,489 这被称为二进制系统 This is what's called a binary system. 772 00:42:20,489 --> 00:42:23,969 每个二进制数被称为一个位 Each binary number is called a bit. 773 00:42:23,969 --> 00:42:27,839 所以两个位可以表示四个数字 So two bits can represent four numbers, 774 00:42:27,839 --> 00:42:32,864 00 01 10 和11 zero zero, zero one, one zero, and one one. 775 00:42:33,659 --> 00:42:38,372 一组8个位 可以表示256个数字 A group of eight bits can therefore represent 256 numbers. 776 00:42:38,849 --> 00:42:41,159 量子计算机不是使用 像经典计算机那样的 Instead of using tiny electrical switches, 777 00:42:41,159 --> 00:42:43,649 微小电开关作为每个位 like a classical computer uses for each bit, 778 00:42:43,649 --> 00:42:46,859 量子计算机使用亚原子粒子 a quantum computer uses subatomic particles, 779 00:42:46,859 --> 00:42:49,739 如光子 来计算数字 like photons, to calculate numbers. 780 00:42:49,739 --> 00:42:52,199 这些被称为量子比特 These are called Qubits, 781 00:42:52,199 --> 00:42:54,329 它们可以同时表示0和1 and they can represent zero and one, 782 00:42:54,329 --> 00:42:56,009 两种状态同时存在 but both at the same time. 783 00:42:56,009 --> 00:42:57,509 相信我吧 Take my word for that. 784 00:42:57,509 --> 00:43:00,209 它们还可以表示0和1之间的 They can also represent an almost infinite number 785 00:43:00,209 --> 00:43:02,903 几乎无限个位置 of positions between the zero and the one. 786 00:43:03,396 --> 00:43:07,138 所以一组几个量子比特 可以计算巨大的数字 So a group of several Qubits can handle enormous numbers. 787 00:43:07,897 --> 00:43:12,058 一台有400个量子比特的量子计算机 可以计算 A quantum computer with 400 Qubits could handle a number 788 00:43:12,083 --> 00:43:15,153 比宇宙中所有原子还大的数字 bigger than all the atoms in the universe. 789 00:43:18,075 --> 00:43:21,029 所以 如果你在零售业工作 想预测你的 So, if you're working in retail and you want to predict 790 00:43:21,029 --> 00:43:23,219 下一个畅销产品 你需要考虑 your next big seller, you need to take 791 00:43:23,219 --> 00:43:26,189 许多不同的情景 many, many different scenarios into account 792 00:43:26,189 --> 00:43:27,771 然后找到最好的 and then find the best one. 793 00:43:28,649 --> 00:43:32,789 或者你想进行一场战争游戏 想不开一枪 Or you want to enact a war game, see how a future conflict 794 00:43:32,789 --> 00:43:35,708 就看到未来的冲突会如何发展 might go without firing a single shot. 795 00:43:36,539 --> 00:43:39,777 现在 这正是量子计算机更擅长的东西 Now this is something that a quantum computer is better for 796 00:43:39,802 --> 00:43:41,159 因为它允许你 because it allows you to calculate 797 00:43:41,159 --> 00:43:43,122 同时计算许多事情 many things at the same time. 798 00:43:44,622 --> 00:43:47,579 所以一旦我们能够在未来几年内建造一台 So once we're able to build a 400 Qubit computer, 799 00:43:47,579 --> 00:43:49,319 400量子比特的计算机 likely in the next few years, 800 00:43:49,319 --> 00:43:51,149 处理地球上每个人的行动 handling the small matter of all the actions 801 00:43:51,149 --> 00:43:53,309 和互动的 所有细枝末节的问题 and interactions of everybody on Earth 802 00:43:53,309 --> 00:43:55,169 并为我们预测接下来的 and predicting what's coming at every split second 803 00:43:55,169 --> 00:43:57,509 未来的每分每秒每一点 and every point in the future for all of us 804 00:43:57,509 --> 00:43:59,450 将易如反掌 will be a snip. 805 00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:01,889 这台机器将在你做出决定之前 The machine will know the consequence 806 00:44:01,889 --> 00:44:05,169 就知道任何决定的后果 of any decision you take before you take it. 807 00:44:07,169 --> 00:44:10,709 在全球范围内 这种不断发展的能力 On a planet-wide scale, this ongoing ability 808 00:44:10,709 --> 00:44:13,349 将赋予我们控制一切的能力 will give us control over everything. 809 00:44:13,349 --> 00:44:16,199 我们将能够实时计划一切 We'll be able to plan everything in real time 810 00:44:16,199 --> 00:44:20,083 这个星球上的每个成年人的每一个细节 in every detail for every adult on the planet. 811 00:44:21,659 --> 00:44:23,369 这感觉不像是自由意志 It doesn't feel like free will 812 00:44:23,369 --> 00:44:25,859 或选择你个人生活方向的个人自由 or personal liberty to choose your individual direction 813 00:44:25,859 --> 00:44:27,411 对吧 in life, does it? 814 00:44:28,079 --> 00:44:31,793 我们几千年来享有的 塑造我们生活的 The old autonomous freedom of action to shape our lives 815 00:44:31,818 --> 00:44:34,623 自主行动的自由 that we've enjoyed for thousands of years. 816 00:44:39,419 --> 00:44:42,871 但也许这只是 我们在量子计算机之前 But maybe that's just the old out-of-date way we used to do things 817 00:44:42,896 --> 00:44:44,755 过时的做事方式 before the quantum computer. 818 00:44:46,859 --> 00:44:50,560 也许我们需要学会 如何生活在一个 Maybe we need to learn how to live in a world 819 00:44:50,896 --> 00:44:52,857 不再有惊喜的世界里 where there are no more surprises.